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Why a lockdown shouldn’t last the entire Covid wave | India News

NEW DELHI: What is the best time to impose a blockade? Data from different parts of the second wave of Covid can help governments make better decisions in the future. A confinement has serious adverse effects on people’s social, economic and psychological well-being, so it should be applied only when essential and canceled as soon as it begins to do more harm than good.
The purpose of a block is to slow the transmission rate of the virus. Therefore, it is most beneficial when the transmission speed or momentum is accelerating, but the benefit-risk ratio is reversed as the momentum begins to decelerate.
The epidemic curve rises when an infected person infects more than one susceptible person; it is then when the number of effective reproduction of the infection (Re)> 1. The curve descends when an infected person infects less than another person (Re
Blocking during the fast boost phase of transmission helps to minimize Re and reduce it to less than 1. When Re
Presented graphically, the cumulative new case, death, and active case data visually show the rise, peak, and decline. The numerical peaks of these parameters are based on the numbers counted. The ‘momentum’ and ‘mortality acceleration’ are groundbreaking mathematical derivations for looking at how the epidemic is moving across the country, states, and districts.
It is essential to analyze each state and district separately for actions such as the gradual relaxation of local closures. Health officials can use the free web-based analytics tool at tiny.cc/covid-momentum to quickly analyze the state and district level dynamics of the second wave for timely interventions.
Complete data
We have illustrated epidemic profiles at the national and state levels with sets of five graphs for each showing momentum, daily new cases, active cases, accelerating mortality and daily deaths, with peak dates for places that have peaked. State peaks appear in the following sequential order: impulse peak, numerical peak, mortality acceleration peak, active cases peak, and numerical mortality peak.
Nationwide peaks represent a statistical average for all states, and state peaks represent the statistical average for all districts.

Why a lockdown shouldn't last the entire Covid wave | India News

The data shows that the second wave began and peaked in different states and districts at different times. It is clear that all states have reached both the momentum peak and the numerical peak of new daily cases. Now momentum and daily numbers are waning in every state. But as of June 7, active cases, accelerating mortality and numerical deaths had not peaked in the seven northeastern states, Tamil Nadu, Odisha and Lakshadweep.
When to unlock
Any state that has reached all five peaks should cancel the statewide lock immediately. There is no justification for prolonging people’s agony. In fact, all states where momentum and new numerical cases have peaked can also be carefully and gradually unlocked by district, as they prepare to address the impending spikes in active cases, accelerating mortality, and numerical deaths.

Why a lockdown shouldn't last the entire Covid wave | India News

We distinguish the two groups primarily to point out that states that have not yet reached peak mortality should concentrate their efforts on making available enough oxygen, essential drugs, hospital beds, and ICU beds.
Even after unlocking, all states must focus on applying the “social vaccine” in addition to the “biological vaccine.” States with declining mortality and surpluses of essential items like oxygen concentrators and drugs should consider sharing them with neighbors in need.
The social vaccine consists of information-education-communication plus education for behavior change for the appropriate use of masks and physical distancing from Covida – which can be relaxed to the limit if everyone wears masks – avoid crowds, good ventilation of all environments closed, cough and sneeze etiquette and hand hygiene.
Actually, blocking should only be resorted to after full use of the social vaccine. The value of the social vaccine was a lesson that India had taught the world during the HIV / AIDS pandemic. We did not learn from history and we suffered the consequences during the Covid pandemic. If we use social and biological vaccines effectively and achieve wide coverage quickly, we can prevent a possible third wave.



Times of India

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