Most parts of India will receive “normal to above normal” rains, says IMD before the start of the monsoon | India News
Certain pockets of the country, including small areas of northwestern India, Bihar, Assam, northern West Bengal, Meghalaya, Ladakh and the southern western part of the peninsula, may receive ‘below normal’ rainfall during the season. four months. In northwestern India, parts of Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh may fall into this forecast category.
However, the prediction shows that there is no shortage of rainfall for agricultural operations, as the entire “central monsoon zone”, which consists of the rainfed agricultural regions of the country, is more likely to experience rainfall “above normal. normal”. The start of the monsoon over Kerala is expected around Thursday. Its gradual progress will start the ‘Kharif’ planting operation, which depends mainly on the rains.
“Quantitatively, the seasonal monsoon precipitation across the country is likely to be 101% of the long-term average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4%,” said IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, while posting his second long-term forecast of the stage.
In the first stage, in mid-April, the IMD had predicted that it would be 98% of the LPA with a model error of +/- 5%. The LPA of the rainy season in the whole country for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm. The 2021 monsoon will be the third consecutive year of good rainfall, suggesting the possibility of record new food grain productions such as 2019 and 2020.
IMD first published maps of the ‘central monsoon zone’, specifically showing the distribution of rainfall by state as a probabilistic forecast, using the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system. Under the new strategy, it issued monthly (June) and seasonal (June to September) operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon rains over the country.
“Climate models with the highest forecasting abilities over the monsoon region of India, including the Mission Monsoon Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), have been used to prepare the MME forecast,” said Mohapatra.
Considered the most advanced and complete system to arrive at the monsoon forecast, the MME system allows forecasting the “spatial distribution” of seasonal rainfall with the probabilistic “regionally averaged precipitation forecasts” of the “central monsoon zone” for better planning. at the regional level of agriculture. and other activities.
When asked about the slightly delayed monsoon (normal date is June 1), Mohapatra said: “So far, not all criteria have been met. We are constantly monitoring the system. Conditions are gradually turning favorable and we expect the start around June 3. ”