Monsoon will arrive in Kerala one day earlier on May 31 | India News
NEW DELHI: The Beginning of the Southwest monsoon on Kerala is likely to be May 31, one day before its normal date, with a model error of ± 4 days, the Department of Meteorology of India he said on Friday. The normal start date falls on June 1 with a standard deviation of seven days.
The IM D has been issuing operational forecasts for the start date of the monsoon in Kerala from 2005. He stated that the operational forecasts for the date of the start of the monsoon in Kerala for the past 16 years (2005-2020) proved to be correct, except for 2015 In the monsoon region of India, initial rains are experienced in the southern Andaman Sea and the monsoon. The winds then move to the northwest across the Bay of bengal. Based on the new normal monsoon start / progress dates, the southwest monsoon advances over the Andaman Sea around May 22. This year, the advance of the monsoon over Andaman and Nicobar is likely around May 21. date of the advance of the monsoon over the Andaman Sea, either with the date of the start of the monsoon in Kerala or with the seasonal monsoon rains over India, ”said IMD.
Last month, the IMD had forecast “normal” monsoon rains in the country during the period from June to September. He had said that the seasonal monsoon rainfall was likely to be 98% of the long-term average (LPA) with a model error of +/- 5%. The LPA of the rainy season throughout the country for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm. Precipitation over 96-104% of the LPA is considered “normal”.
IMD will release the probabilistic monsoon forecast for June in the last week of this month.