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New Covid Cases May Peak Today, Experts Say | India News

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NEW DELHI: Scientists working on a mathematical model to trace the trajectory of Covid-19 cases have noted that the peak of new infections could be reached in the next 24 hours at around 4 lakh of cases (average of seven days) and the peak load of active cases. it could touch around 40 lakh between May 14-18.
“Our model shows that the peak of new cases, taken a 7-day average, will be reached on Tuesday and the peak of active infections would be around 40 lakh at the lower end of our previous prediction range,” IIT’s Manindra Agrawal -Kanpur told TOI on Monday while still observing last week’s observation
The model, called SUTRA, had predicted on April 25 a peak value of new infections between 3.4 to 4.4 lakh during May 4-8 and a peak value of active infections between 38-48 lakh during May 14. May 18. “We’ve been consistent ever since,” Agrawal said, pointing to the possibility of a lower end of the observed range.
He also said the third wave of the pandemic was unlikely, adding an important warning that vaccination must be sped up and that people are not giving up safe behavior again.
“If, as planned, 40% of the population would be vaccinated in October. Also, a large percentage of people would already be infected by then. So even if the third wave comes, it won’t be like what we’ve been experiencing now, ”Agrawal said.
In addition to Agrawal, two other scientists, Madhuri Kanitkar, Deputy Chief of the Integrated Defense Staff and M Vidyasagar from IIT-Hyderabad, have been working on the SUTRA model. They have been working closely with the government.
“While we were unable to predict the exact nature of the second wave earlier, we are continuing our efforts to better estimate its future trajectory,” they said in a joint statement as they explained why their initial prediction that the second wave will peak in the third. April week and log around 1 lakh of daily cases went wrong.

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