Active Cases May Peak 38-48 Lakh in Mid-May – Experts | India News
NEW DELHI: With the large number of daily Covid-19 cases showing no signs of relief in the next two to three weeks, IIT Scientists working on a mathematical model to predict the course of the pandemic on Sunday reviewed both the weather and value of peak cases, saying that the peak of ‘active’ infections can touch 38-48 lakh cases during May 14-18, while the peak of “new” infections reached 4.4 lakh in the next 10 days.
“Now I have calculated a range of values for the maximum value and the time and the final numbers must be within this range. The reason for this uncertainty is that the parameter values for the last phase continue to drift, ”Manindra tweeted. Agrawal from IIT-Kanpur, involved with the national ‘supermodel’ initiative, while also referring to updates on peak hour and peak value.
“Peak hours: May 14-18 for active infections and May 4-8 for new infections. Maximum value: 38-48 lakh for active infections and 3.4-4.4 lakh for new infections, ”Agrawal tweeted on Sunday. He had told TOI last week about the importance of such a prediction despite the risk of being wrong, noting that such an exercise through mathematical modeling was important to prepare legislators for an adequate response mechanism in terms of medical readiness, supplies and facilities.
Referring to the model, called Sutra, Agrawal had explained that the two different peaks should not be confused: one of the most frequently observed daily ‘new’ cases and another of the total number of ‘active’ infections that will occur approximately 10 days later. the peak of “new” cases.
Updating the peak timing and value prediction means that the number of ‘active’ cases in India will continue to rise until roughly mid-May before showing a decline. If the current model shows the trend correctly, the mid-May peak will now be around four times higher than the first peak of more than 10 lakh of ‘active’ cases witnessed on September 17 of last year. The total number of “active” cases from India on Sunday reached 26,82,751.
On April 1, the model had forecast the peak of ‘active’ cases somewhere between April 15-20 at around 10 lakh, the same level the country saw in September last year. However, these figures were later revised with last week’s model predicting the possibility of a May 11-15 peak with 33-35 lakh of ‘active’ infections.
When asked about the reasons for such a large variation in the prediction that keeps changing, Agrawal told TOI: “The severity (of the spread of Covid-19) has driven the calculations crazy. We observed a significant variation in the values of the Indian parameters in our model, so the (old) model was not exact. ”
He said that the parameter values kept changing due to the new state data and so the maximum value kept changing. A scientific paper on Sutra by three scientists (Manindra Agrawal, Madhuri Kanitkar, and Mathukumalli Vidyasagar) claimed to have applied the model to predict the progression of the Covid-19 pandemic in various countries.