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India’s Covid-19 Peak Likely May 11-15 With 33-35 Lakh Active Cases – Experts | India News


NEW DELHI: The rapid spread of Covid-19 cases during the second wave could have skewed recent predictions, but scientists working on a mathematical model to determine the course of the pandemic say there is a possibility of a spike between 11 of May. -15 with 33-35 lakh of total ‘active’ infections.
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This means that the number of “active” cases in India will continue to increase for roughly another three weeks before declining. If the current model shows the trend correctly, the mid-May peak would be three times higher than the first peak of more than 10 lakh of ‘active’ cases witnessed on September 17 of last year.

However, the exercise is important to prepare policy makers for an adequate response mechanism in terms of medical supplies and facilities.

The current model shows that Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan and Telangana may see a peak of “new” cases between April 25-30; Odisha, Karnataka and West Bengal from May 1 to 5, while Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh from May 6 to 10. It shows that Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh may have already reached their peak phase now, while Bihar will see it around April 25.

“Our model shows a peak of ‘new’ infections, seen on a day-to-day basis, which can be noticed during May 1-5 at around 3.3 to 3.5 lakh infections per day. The peak of ‘active’ cases will become around 33-35 thousand rupees 10 days later, between May 11 and 15, ”Manindra Agrawal of IIT Kanpur, involved in the national initiative of ‘supermodel ‘.
Although the cases of Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Kerala and Goa are also being tracked, the model has not converged on them, so scientists would like to wait a few more days to arrive at the prediction.

Referring to the current model, Agrawal said the two different peaks should not be confused: one of the most frequently seen daily ‘new’ cases and another of the total number of ‘active’ infections that will occur 10 days after the peak. ‘new’. ‘cases.
Previously, on April 1, the model had predicted the peak of ‘active’ cases somewhere between April 15 and 20 at around 10 lakh, the same level the country had seen in September last year. However, these figures continued to change subsequently.
When asked about the reasons for such a large variation in the prediction that keeps changing, Agrawal said: “The severity (of the spread of Covid-19) has driven the calculations crazy. We observed a significant variation in the values ​​of the Indian parameters in our model, so the (old) model was not exact. ”
He pointed out that the parameter value keeps changing due to new state data and that is why the maximum value keeps changing. “The problem is that the parameters of our model for the current phase are constantly adrift. Therefore, it is difficult to get its value right, “said Agrawal.

Although scientists are aware of the limitations of such predictions due to the variation in the data from a vast country like India, they cannot stop working on the model, as such predictions at least provide basic information to policy makers to fine-tune. its response mechanism.
“The prediction gives you a fair estimate of everything you need (like hospital bed layout, ICU, medical grade oxygen, etc.) to do in the next month or so. Although there is a risk of going wrong, we cannot stop doing it, as this model is very important to prepare for the crisis, ”said Agrawal.

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