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Monsoon Is Likely Normal For Third Year In A Row, But India’s North Plains May Face A Shortfall, Says Skymet Weather | India News

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NEW DELHI: In what could be a positive sign for India’s agriculture sector, which performed quite well in 2020-21 despite challenges from Covid-19, private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather, predicted a ‘normal’ monsoon on Tuesday this year – the third year. in a series of good rains that not only boost agriculture and related sectors, but also contribute significantly to the general well-being of the economy.
The meteorological agency said the next monsoon was expected to be ‘normal healthy’ to the tune of 103% (with a margin of error of +/- 5%) of the long-term average (LPA) of 880.6mm of rainfall. for the four years. month period from June to September.
Precipitation over 96-104% of the LPA is considered ‘normal’ while precipitation between 105-110% is considered ‘above normal’. Skymet Weather said there was a 60% chance that monsoon rain was “normal” this year with a 15% chance that it was “above normal.” He completely ruled out the possibility that 2021 is the year of ‘drought’.
In terms of geographic risk, Skymet Weather expects the North Indian plains, along with some parts of the northeast region, to be “at risk of rain deficiency” during the season. In addition, the inland parts of Karnataka can suffer the scare of “scant rains” in the months of July and August, which are the core of the monsoon.
Overall, the country is expected to experience a good national distribution of rainfall in June (the monsoon start month) and September (the monsoon retreat phase).
“La Niña conditions prevailing in the Pacific Ocean since last year herald a softening and is expected to remain neutral during the monsoon season. The ENSO (El Niño / Southern Oscillation) continues to peak mid-season, suggesting a new, albeit marginal, cooling phase over the central Pacific Ocean. Therefore, the occurrence of El Niño, which normally corrupts the monsoon, is ruled out, ”said Yogesh Patil, CEO of Skymet, referring to the factors that can lead to the next monsoon being ‘normal’.
He said: “The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral and oscillates slightly on both sides of the zero line. This parameter appears to slope with a negative change but remains within the limits of the threshold. In this case, it may not bring about the monsoon rains, but it will refrain from damaging the season. ”
Skymet Weather Monsoon Prediction
* 10% probability of excess (seasonal rain that is more than 110% of the LPA)
* 15% probability of an increase above normal (seasonal rains that are between 105 and 110% of the LPA)
* 60% probability of normality (seasonal rains that are between 96% and 104% of the LPA)
* 15% probability of being below normal (seasonal rains that are between 90 and 95% of the LPA)
* 0% probability of drought (seasonal rains that are less than 90% of LPA)
On a monthly scale, the omen of precipitation is as follows:
June: 106% LPA (LPA for June = 166.9 mm)
• 70% chance of normality
• 20% chance of being above normal
• 10% chance of being below normal
July: 97% LPA (July LPA = 285.3 mm)
• 75% chance of normal
• 10% chance of being above normal
• 15% chance of being below normal
August: 99% LPA (LPA for August = 258.2 mm)
• 80% chance of normal
• 10% chance of being above normal
• 10% chance of being below normal
September: 116% LPA (LPA for September = 170.2 mm)
• 30% chance of normality
• 60% chance of being above normal
• 10% chance of being below normal

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