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Second Wave of Coronavirus in India: Second Wave of Covid May Peak on April 20, Scientists Say | India News

NEW DELHI: Scientists working on a mathematical model to examine the spread of Covid-19 predict that the current second wave will peak between April 15-20 and the number of ‘active’ symptomatic cases would peak approximately a week later at the same level of around 10 lakh of cases that the country had seen in September last year.
Manindra Agrawal of IIT Kanpur, who participated in the national ‘supermodel’ initiative, told TOI on Thursday that the peak is expected to see between 80,000 and 90,000 new infections per day. “There may be 10-15% less, but the general peak is expected between April 15 and 20 … We may be wrong, but I am reasonably sure that we cannot be too wrong,” he said.

Second Wave of Coronavirus in India: Second Wave of Covid May Peak on April 20, Scientists Say | India News

On a positive note, he said that the current sharp rise will also be followed by a sharp decline. “We will cross the peak (April 15-20) and then there will be a very steep drop for the next 15-20 days,” Agrawal said.
The national ‘supermodel’ had predicted in October last year that the pandemic can be brought under control by early 2021 with “minimal active symptomatic infections” in February. An expert committee, made up of scientists from different IITs, IISc Bangalore, ISI Kolkata and CMC Vellore, observed that the number of active symptomatic cases in the country had already peaked at around 10 lakhs on September 17.
When asked about the possible explanation for the second wave, Agrawal said that there were two reasons or possibly the combination of the two that could explain what changed in February and that could cause the sharp increase.
He pointed out that the second wave could be due to accumulation linked to the opening of schools, universities and other areas of work where people have become comparatively more careless, and the fact that there are some mutations that are spreading faster.
In the mathematical model there are parameters that measure the rate of spread or the rate of contact that can explain how many people could be infected on average by an infected person.
“The contact rate has doubled in March and that may be contributing to the sharp increase,” Agrawal said.
The October ‘supermodel’ had come out with a ‘conditional’ prediction. He had predicted that Covid-19 would be completely under control as long as people continued to observe the same precautions, such as masking, disinfection, tracking, and quarantine practices.

Times of India

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