The second wave of Covid in India is more severe and is likely to get worse | India News
On Monday morning, India reported 68,020 new cases in the last 24 hours, registering an increase in cases for the 19th consecutive day. Amid the increase in cases, the total number of cases in the country surpassed the 12 million mark.
Although the current wave appears to be localized in a limited number of states, at least ten states have shown an upward trajectory in daily new cases.
The growth rate is increasing
The recent increase in cases is occurring at a faster rate than that seen during the first wave of the virus. The number of cases is likely to rise further in the wake of relaxed restrictions, the holiday season and state assembly elections in four states.
During the first wave, it took 32 days for cases to increase from 18,000 to 50,000. Cases have almost doubled that of the first wave. It took just 17 days for cases to increase from 18,377 on March 11 to 50,518 on March 27.
In Maharashtra, it took 31 days for daily cases to rise from 11,000 to 21,900 during the first wave. The same increase took only nine days this time.
In Mumbai, Maharashtra, it took 24 days for daily cases to increase from 850 to 2,100. It had taken 31 days for a similar increase during the first wave. The positivity rate, which is an indication of the spread of the virus in a community, has passed the 21% mark in the state, indicating that the virus is much more widespread than tests reveal.
In Gujarat, it took six days for new cases this time compared to 30 days during the first wave to go from 900 to 1,500. The western state surpassed its peak value for new cases when it reported 1,500 cases on March 25. Since then, the state has continued to report more than 1,500 cases per day.
Punjab also surpassed its maximum number of daily cases when it reported more than 2,661 cases per day on March 25. As in the other worst affected states, the current growth rate of new cases in Punjab was found to be higher than the first wave.
A more severe growth rate was also observed in Chhattisgarh. It took 40 days for new cases to increase from 200 to 1,400 during the first wave. The same increase took only 24 days this time.
Number of active cases also at a record level
The total number of active cases in the country surpassed the 5 lakh mark on Sunday. It took just 4 days for active cases to skyrocket from 4 lakh to 5 lakh, making this the fastest increase in one lakh of active cases since the start of the pandemic.
Five states, Maharashtra, Kerala, Punjab, Karnataka and Chhattisgarh accumulate 80.17% of the total active cases in the country.
In the past week, Covid-19-related deaths increased by 51%, the steepest increase since December 21-27. The country has reported more than 200 deaths per day during the last six days.
It is likely to get worse
In 1918, the influenza pandemic infected about 500 million people and killed between 50 and 100 million people. The pandemic spread in four waves, the second wave being the deadliest. The exact reasons behind the deadly nature of the second wave are unclear. Premature relaxations in precautionary measures are believed to have resulted in an increase in the number of infections and deaths.
An example of this is that the first wave of the coronavirus in India took place amid one of the most severe restrictions seen in human history. Now, in the absence of Covid-19 lockdown and precautionary measures, the virus is more likely to spread at a higher rate than before.
The discovery of new strains of the virus, which appear to be more transmissible, has also raised concern. The ongoing festival season and upcoming elections have added to the government’s troubles. In the absence of Covid-19 restrictions, these events can lead to various super spreader events.