2021 Assembly Elections: 4 States, 1 UT, 18 Crore Voters – The Race Begins | India News
Note: In 2011, Trinamool and Congress were allies.
Some see this as the most significant of the state polls, given the high-octane and often violent contest between Trinamool Congress Speaker Mamata Bannerjee and the BJP. Banerjee could be waging the toughest choice of his political career, turning it into a “daughter of the earth” battle against “outsiders.”
A victory will make her a hero of anti-BJP politics, vastly improving her stature not only in Bengal but nationally. A victory for the BJP will be a great success in a state where it has been a political and cultural outlier and where all elections since Independence have been won by left or center-left parties. Not only the Bengal assembly is at stake: whoever wins this round may also have a clear advantage in the 2024 general election.
With Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Interior Minister Amit Shah in the middle of things, the elections will be exciting. The Left-Congress combination, for the most part, will try to ensure that it is not totally decimated by Bengal politics; it won just two seats at Lok Sabha in 2019 and was ahead in just nine assembly segments.
Note: Allies as they were at that time. In 2016, the polls were not held in two seats.
Often seen as an indecisive state, it offers the best prospects for Congress to halt the erosion of its electoral fortunes as a junior partner of DMK.
The DMK-led alliance won 38 of the state’s 39 Lok Sabha seats and leads in assembly polls. But the AIADMK government, contrary to expectations, survived after Amma and with BJP as a partner it is not out of the question.
The polls are a key test not only for EPS and its allies, but also for Sasikala, who is seeking Jayalalithaa’s legacy. His imprisonment has hampered his preparations, but could damage the AIADMK.
Stalin’s leadership in DMK is not in doubt, but he needs to win the grand prize of the CM seat that will seal his ancestry as Karunanidhi’s successor.
BJP will expect to make a profit in the company of AIADMK, although it remains a limited force.
* Includes independents on both fronts. The fronts are as they were at that time.
Rather unexpectedly, after having lost voting ground before Congress in the Lok Sabha elections, the LDF appears to have returned to account after strong results in polls by local bodies.
Amid the perception that the congressional alliance with the Jamaat-backed Welfare Party failed and in fact upset its base, the party has been struggling to solve internal equations.
However, Congress is the main rival, even if BJP now has a larger presence than ever. The left-wing leadership has also moved to ease the pain of its harsh crackdown on “pro-Sabarimala” protesters by dropping the cases and doing the same on CAA-related issues. Having become the third in West Bengal, conserving Kerala is important to CPM. Similarly, after his move to Kerala, the results will also influence Rahul Gandhi’s leadership.
BJP won an unexpected victory in Assam in D 2016 and hopes to consolidate its control in a state that was long a stronghold of Congress. Regional parties like AGP are the other contenders. Congress will miss the late Tarun Gogoi, who has been awarded a Padma Bhushan by the Center. But its alliance with Badruddin Ajmal’s AUDF may prevent the division of Muslim votes, and the BJP will face a strong demographic challenge.
Congress-AUDF will also attack BJP in CAA and exploit an ethnic fault line. BJP hopes that CM Sarbananda Sonowal’s uncontroversial image and development initiatives will help retain the state, which is an integral part of its political ambitions in the Northeast region.
The UT presents the BJP with its best chance to rule in the south, where it has gone no further than Kamataka. He is allied with the AINRC leader and former CM N Rangaswamy, who is seen as a politician with simple habits.
AIADMK is the third partner and the alliance is strengthened by the resignations of Congress and DMK that topple the government of V Narayanasamy just before the elections.
Congress and DMK face a difficult task as the Allies were unable to retain their flock. With Congress on difficult ground, the opposition is relying on Rangaswamy’s local credentials to win.