At 3.6 billion, India is set to produce the most Covid-19 vaccine doses after the US in 2021 | India News
Data shared with TOI by UK-based scientific information and analysis company Airfinity shows that as of January 12, Indian companies would be manufacturing more than 3.6 billion doses of six different vaccines this year, compared to 4.8 billion doses of 12 candidates estimated to be produced. In the USA.
However, it is unlikely that at least some of the candidates for which US firms have deals will be ready for the market this year, indicating that estimates for the country may fall later.
According to Airfinity analysis, the world is estimated to produce more than 16 billion doses of the Covid-19 vaccine in 2021. China is estimated to produce 3.1 billion doses of five types of vaccines.
“The picture is dynamic, and this is what the data shows today. However, we expect that some, if not many, of the vaccine candidates will not be ready this year, which will significantly reduce the production forecast, ”Airfinity CEO Rasmus Bech Hansen told TOI from London.
Dr Sanjiv Kumar, President of the Indian Academy of Public Health and the Indian Patient Alliance Group, said: “… Vaccine failure rates in various phases of the trial and after introduction are high. A study that reviewed vaccine projects from 1998-2009 found that a vaccine has a chance of going to market of only 6% or one in sixteen. The main reasons for refusal are safety and efficacy. There are more than 250 Covid-19 vaccines in clinical trials. Pfizer and Sputnik V have shown that the efficiency is 90% or more, while Covaxin, Covishield and AstraZeneca have 60% or more. ”
Hansen, while noting that many of the countries in the lowest income bracket will have to rely on competing global initiatives to enable equitable distribution of vaccines, said: “In some countries like the US, we have seen so much capacity. of production as supply orders, whereas in the EU there are many supply orders, but not enough production capacity. So many EU countries are importing. ”
India, on the other hand, appears to have more agreements than supply orders, indicating that companies will export vaccines. Russia, Switzerland, South Korea, the United Kingdom, France, Japan, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic are among the other countries that have agreements to produce vaccines.
Hansen said there were some positives for those countries that do not have production capacity as some of the candidates are being developed by companies that have the experience and ability to scale, which would mean there would be no shortage of supply.
“We hope that some candidates will have sufficient data for approvals in early March and, in some cases, earlier. The forecast also includes the production of some of these vaccines, ”Hansen said.
Disintegration of India
Of the 3.6 billion doses to be produced in India, 1.3 billion correspond to the Oxford-AstraZeneca candidate, which has been approved for vaccination in several countries, while 1 billion correspond to Novavax, which has not yet obtained approvals.
Among the others, the production forecast is 700 million doses of the Bharat Biotech candidate, 300 million doses of Russia’s Sputnik V and 250 million doses of the J&J candidate. The other 100 million doses will be the candidate being developed by Zydus Cadila.