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Indian coronavirus vaccine: counting waste, India may need 66.6cr doses of vaccine | India News


BENGALURU: The Union Ministry of Health has calculated the number of vaccines that the government would need to buy: 111 doses to inoculate every 50 beneficiaries. This means that to deliver two doses of a vaccine to 30 crore people, the government would need to buy 66.6 crore, and not just 60 crore of doses as originally planned.
The guidelines issued for all state governments show that the formula used to estimate vaccine needs at various levels (block, state and district) is largely borrowed from the Universal Immunization Program (UIP). However, while the percentage of waste differs for the different vaccines under UIP, the “allowed waste” for the Covid-19 vaccine has been set at 10%. This is used to determine the waste multiplication factor (WMF), which is used to determine the estimated number of doses to purchase.
The ministry and experts have reached a WMF of 1.1 for Covid-19 vaccines. Given that each beneficiary needs two doses of the vaccine, this is how the procurement estimate is made: if the government, for example, is purchasing doses for 100 people, first multiply the number of people by two (since two are needed dose). This number (200) is then multiplied by 1.1, to account for waste and arrive at the final number of doses needed. In this case it would be 222. Giving an example for estimating a dose, the ministry’s guidelines say: “… 27,800 doses of the Covid-19 vaccine are adequate to immunize 25,045 beneficiaries (WMF = 1.11).”
While only 200 doses may eventually be enough for 100 people, if logistics, storage, management and administration (of vaccines) have a 100% efficiency rate, such a formula is used to avoid a dose shortage in case that there is waste due to one of these reasons. Union MoH & FW and state governments are taking all possible steps to minimize waste.

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