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Covid-19: New cases decrease but the proportion of rural and semi-urban areas increases dramatically | India News


Compared to the second week of September, when the daily average of fresh Covid-19 cases in India had crossed the 90,000 mark, there has been a significant drop to just over 40,000 daily cases. However, an analysis of data by district shows that of the 632 for which time series data are available, 284, or about 45%, had an increase in cases in the last week compared to the previous month. .
The data aggregated at the national level does not capture this trend because most of the districts that have shown an increase in cases recently are in rural areas of the country with much smaller bases of case numbers compared to large cities, which It was the Covid epicenters in India at the beginning of the outbreak. The slowdown in big cities like Chennai, Bengaluru and Pune is more than offsetting the increase in districts with far fewer cases.
Initially, the pandemic was concentrated in urban areas. On April 26, the date from which district data is available on covid19india.org, urban districts contributed more than three-quarters (76.8%) of cases, while the combined proportion of rural and semi-rural districts it was just over 20%. On November 29, the proportion of urban districts (52%) is almost equal to the combined proportion of rural and semi-urban districts (45%).
Classification of districts as urban, semi-urban and rural has been done here using data from the 2011 census. Districts classified as urban are those that reported more than 40% of their population as urban at that time. Semi-urban districts are those that had between 25% and 40% of their population in urban areas. Districts that reported less than 25% urban population have been classified as rural. Of course, the current proportion of urban population in all of them is likely to have increased since 2011.
District-level data are not available for the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Assam, Manipur, Sikkim, and Telangana, and these states are therefore excluded from the analysis. In addition, there are 56 districts created after the 2011 census, for which the urban-rural population division was not available. Although many of these districts appear to be in rural areas, in this analysis they are counted separately as “not classified”.
An analysis of districts according to confirmed cases shows that there are 32 that have reported more than 50,000 cases of which 19 (59%) added less than 10% of their total cases in November. On the other hand, most of the country’s districts now fall into the category of 1,000-10,000 confirmed cases of which 60% added more than 10% of cases in November. Small additions today appear to be offset by large reductions in the largest cities.

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