|  |  | 

India Top Headlines

Rapid increase in Covid cases not only due to increased evidence | India News


NEW DELHI: Is India’s increase in Covid-19 cases in the past month attributable to higher evidence? Not quite. Most states have more cases than they would have if the cases had increased at the same rate as the evidence (expected cases).
Nationwide, the gap between actual cases and expected cases was 9% as of Sunday morning. For example, if Andhra Pradesh’s cases had increased proportionally with evidence in the past month, the state would have had just over 55,400 cases on July 25.
Actually, there were 88,671 cases, 60% more than the expected value. Similarly, Karnataka had 85,870 cases, which was 30% higher than the expected 66,000odd cases. In 13 of the 21 large states, the case count was more than 10% higher than the expected value calculated based on increasing evidence. In seven of these, the actual case count was more than 20% higher than the expected count.
Apart from Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, these were West Bengal, Kerala, Jharkhand, Odisha and Bihar. In Assam, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh, J&K and Punjab, actual cases were 10-20% higher than the increase in cases based on increased evidence alone.
In UP, Rajasthan and MP, the gap between expected and actual cases was 9.7%, 8.3% and 5.5%, respectively. Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Haryana were the only large states where the expected cases based on increased evidence were more or less in sync with the actual increase in cases (the gap was between plus / minus 5%).
For Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra, the actual cases were slightly higher than expected. In Gujarat and Haryana, the actual case count was slightly lower than expected. Delhi had 8.4% fewer cases than the expected value based on increased evidence.
Nationwide, the expected value of cases based on increased evidence over the past month should have been 12.3 lakh, but the actual count was 9% higher at 13.4 lakh on July 25. The TOI analysis is based on data compiled by covid19india .org, a dashboard made by volunteers who collect Covid data from state bulletins and official handles of state governments.

Original source