Blockade in India: the blockade prevented 37,000-78,000 deaths | India News
Introducing the analysis of the first two phases of the block, Niti member Aayog (health) Dr. V K Paul said that the restrictions had significantly reduced the speed at which the virus was spreading.
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“On April 3, we had 22.6% of new cases per day, the behavior of the virus was exponential. But after April 4, there was a clear slowdown and it has now settled at 5.5%, ”he said. The blockade was imposed on March 25, and Paul said it took a period of time for its effects to appear in terms of a decrease in the infection rate.
In addition to curbing the spread of the disease, the blockade allowed the government to align resources in terms of health infrastructure and medical workers, increase medical supplies, and gain experience in containment measures. It also shortened the wait for possible medications, vaccines and treatments, as well as speeding up the investigation, Dr. Paul said.
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Sharing the projections of a no-closure scenario, Praveen Shrivastava, secretary, ministry of statistics, program planning and implementation, cited models including those prepared by the Boston Consulting Group, Public Health Foundation of India, independent economists and researchers, as well as by the ministry. in association with the Indian Institute of Statistics.
According to BCG, 36 cases of lakh-70 lakh and 1.2-2.1 lakh of deaths may have been prevented due to the blockade, while PHFI estimated that 78,000 deaths were avoided.
Two independent economists estimated that 23 lakh cases and 68,000 deaths could have been prevented, while some retired scientists and epidemiologists put it at 15.9 lakh cases and 51,000 deaths prevented. Models from the statistics ministry and ISI found that 20 lakh cases and 54,000 deaths were prevented.
“While the gains from the blockade have been that a large number of deaths and cases have been prevented, it has also meant that far fewer people spread the infection,” said Dr. Paul, adding that this was a significant gain.