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Coronavirus: doubling time worsens to 11 days as active cases emerge | India News

NEW DELHI: The number of active Covid-19 cases is growing faster by 6.6% now, leading to a shorter doubling time of 11 days, compared to 15 days on May 2 when the growth rate for such cases was 4.8%, data analysis by economist Shamika Ravi, previous sample of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council.

Ravi tweets daily updates on his statistical analysis, which are widely followed on social media, and his slides have also been used occasionally by the government. The trend is fueled by growing concerns regarding states such as Maharashtra, West Bengal, Gujarat, Delhi and Tamil Nadu, where infection is at worrying levels, death rates are increasing, and there is no specific strategy for tracking and contact evidence, says Ravi.


Shamika said that in the Kasargod district of Kerala, when 100 people tested positive, 20,000 samples were tested, while in Mumbai 6,000 samples were tested in 100 positive cases. According to her, there is a second big wave in various states with growing concerns in Gujarat, Delhi and Tamil Nadu, along with Maharashtra, where the case load is alarmingly high.

“It is a combination of containment, contact tracing, and testing that will help flatten the curve. If containment and contact tracing is poor, active cases will continue to increase. States need to formulate a strategy and ensure that it is strictly implemented.” , said. said. So far, the government has said that the doubling rate is increasing with the figures taken for all cases and not just assets as in Ravi’s analysis.

“Maharashtra is failing very seriously and I’m afraid it will affect the national average,” Ravi said, stressing that states will have to focus on tracking contacts and identifying people who could have been infected through positive cases and ensuring control. clinician to control a wider extent

From April 25 to May 5, the national death rate for Covid-19 per million was 1.31, while Maharashtra and Gujarat are more than 5, according to Ravi’s analysis.

The health ministry has also expressed concern that some states do not carry out adequate surveillance, follow-up of contacts and notification of positive cases, leading to a delay in clinical treatment and an increase in the number of deaths. .

The Center has also dispatched public health teams to 20 districts to ensure that such gaps are addressed.

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