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Covid-19 in India: Coronavirus epidemic could peak in India in mid-May: study | India News


NEW DELHI: The coronavirus epidemic could peak in India in mid-May and would gradually subside after that, as predicted by a modeling exercise conducted by the Times Network in association with global consultancy Protiviti.

The “Times Fact India Outbreak Report” looks at three different possibilities and suggests that India could see the number of coronavirus cases crossing 75,000 around May 22.

The team built three models to predict the progression of the coronavirus. Each model provides an estimate of how the outbreak might unfold under different conditions and provides information on how the government and health infrastructure can respond to the crisis.

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The report used three models: the percentage model, the time series model, and the Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovery (SEIR) model. The percentage model uses trends in the spread of the disease in Italy and the USA. And it applies them to India to predict its trajectory.

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The time series model takes into account the data over time periods in China and South Korea, and adapts it to the data from India. The SEIR model is based on an estimate of the virus’s reproduction rate, which is the average number of people that each positive person infects. Together, the three models provided six projections for the outbreak and give an indication of when it would be safe to lift the lock.

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The report also predicted two scenarios to show when the case count could drop to zero. The scenarios assume that the blockade extends beyond May 3 and the virus’s reproduction rate is 0.8, that is, each infected person spreads the disease to another 0.8 people. In the first scenario, if the block extends until May 15, the case count will drop to zero by September 15. In the second scenario, if the blockade extends to May 30, cases will drop to zero in mid-June.

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