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Addressing the coronavirus: lessons for India – editorials


Mathematics is inescapable. At the end of February, Italy had 600 confirmed cases of coronavirus. That number now exceeds 10,000. Some people call that exponential growth. It is not But it is geometric growth. And very worrying. Experts in the United States (USA), which had around 600 cases earlier this week, expect a similar hockey stick curve call this week. India has about 60 confirmed cases of coronavirus now. This number will increase. The good news is that there is no community transmission for now, but that could also change. For now, India has had enough time to study the responses of China, South Korea, Italy and the United States. What to do

The first thing is to expand the tests. South Korea cracked down on the spread of the disease through aggressive testing. India should ensure that it has enough test kits and also explore the use of the shortest test used by China (most European nations and the US say it is not 100% accurate, but this is not the time for the greats to get in the way (good enough). The second is to restrict and regulate international travel and travelers, both incoming and outgoing. India has already done some of this. You need to do more, including, and in a controversial way, a restriction to US travelers. UU. The third is to cancel public events. Experts call this social distancing. In both China and South Korea, this helped reverse the trend in terms of new cases.

Finally, India should be ready with Plan B. At some point, when the number of cases crosses 1,000, perhaps 5,000, contact tracking will no longer make sense. The Union Ministry of Health should already have a mitigation plan. The experience of Italy, South Korea and the USA. UU. It is an indication that, at some point, prevention will no longer make sense and the approach will have to move to mitigation.

Hindustan Times