The Taliban have defeated the United States in Afghanistan | Analysis – analysis
On February 29, a leap day, the United States (USA) took a leap of faith by formalizing an agreement with the Taliban in the capital of Qatar, Doha, agreeing to the terms of the 19-year war withdrawal in the country, which cost the lives of more than 2,000 US soldiers and almost $ 900 billion. Perhaps not in his wildest dreams he had waited for American leadership during the last two decades this photo shoot, where the United States Special Representative for Afghanistan, Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, sat at the same table, facing the world, and He shook hands with the Taliban. , agreeing to a gradual withdrawal of US troops and their allies.
The details of the agreement between the US UU. And the Taliban are public for all to see, and for some time it was recognized that the Taliban began these negotiations with advantage. The Afghan government, from the beginning, was not part of the negotiations, putting the representation of the incidental Afghan people in their own future.
The Taliban had begun to pave the way for their own resurrection feeling two main tendencies, which both the detractors and the supporters of the campaign against the Taliban had reached a point of exhaustion. Both camps, although they disagreed with each other, agreed that this was a war that was impossible to win.
However, most discussions on this issue have varied around what this means for the United States, the Taliban and the Afghan people, and rightly so. However, South Asia and the larger region of West Asia will ultimately bear a large part of the success and failure of this agreement, and an imminent withdrawal from the United States.
While much would be based on the intra-Afghan dialogue, scheduled to begin on March 10, the agreement says the Taliban will begin these negotiations with the “Afghan parties,” without specifically mentioning the Afghan government. Two days after the agreement, the Taliban already seem to be preparing for hostilities against the Afghan armed forces once again.
A more important question that arises now is how other groups, such as Al Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), both with strengths in Afghanistan, see that agreement. The expected reactions will, in all likelihood, be in the form of this agreement as a victory of the mujahedeen about the United States, a narrative that can resonate as a song of a historic triumph in the coming decades for Islamist groups and jihadist movements.
The Taliban and their leaders, since its creation in 1994, have had a rich history of supporting al Qaeda, giving bayats (pledge of loyalty) to his leadership under Osama bin Laden, and his successor, and current leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri.
However, the agreement signed by the United States mentions al-Qaeda only in passing, and has a stronger language dedicated to the United States starting work to remove Taliban members from the United Nations sanctions list. In addition, the Taliban have not provided evidence of significant operations or maneuvers in recent months to specifically attack al-Qaeda leaders or infrastructure to show their sincerity. The word of the Taliban, without any quantifiable evidence, leads the charge in this agreement.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an intermittent part of al-Qaeda in the Syrian civil war, used lines from the 2002 document “Letter to the American People” by Osama bin Laden to praise the vision of the late Taliban chief, Mullah Omar. “‘ God has promised us victory, and Bush has promised us defeat. “We will see which promise is more true,” said Mullah Muhammad Omar Mujahid, may God have mercy on him, “said an online statement from the group in reaction to the agreement, celebrating it as a victory for the wisdom and vision of bin Laden.
Even through fractures among jihadist groups in Afghanistan and beyond, reading the agreement and an imminent total withdrawal of US forces would be considered a significant victory for Islamist jihad. Meanwhile, dissidents within the Taliban may change sides to ISIS Khorasan.
The effects of the same for the tastes of India could be significant. While India attended the agreement between the United States and Taliban that it signed as “observer,” and Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla ran to Kabul to meet with President Ashraf Ghani, the fact is that India was an “observer.” Auto designed by almost all full process, choose to sit in the stands and have little voice in the real game.
On the other hand, Pakistan may appear as a great winner, despite suggestions that the end of the Afghan conflict may see Washington distance itself from Islamabad and Rawalpindi. India may only be adding weight behind the Afghan government, but the Taliban’s being comes from Pakistan, so Afghanistan is a critical battleground against Indian influence.
Much depends on the successful progression of the agreement between the United States and the Taliban. However, in the short term, they are the next US presidential elections. UU. And President Donald Trump’s offer for a second term will benefit most.
However, as it stands today, it does not seem unfathomable that in the coming years the Taliban can form a government, regain control of Kabul and sit in a parliament building built by India and inaugurated by an Indian prime minister. Minister.
Kabir Taneja is a member of the Strategic Studies Program of the Observer Research Foundation.
The opinions expressed are personal.