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India ranks 17th among countries at risk of importing coronavirus | India News

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NEW DELHI: Of the countries with the highest risk of importing coronavirus cases, India is ranked 17, according to a mathematical model for the expected worldwide spread of the virus that originated in the Wuhan area of ​​China in December 2019.

So far, India has reported 3 positive cases of coronavirus, all from Kerala.

According to the model, among the airports in India, the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi is at greater risk, followed by the airports of Mumbai, Kolkata, Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kochi.

The new model for predicting new global cases of coronavirus has been developed by researchers at Humboldt University and the Robert Koch Institute in Germany.

“The spread of the virus internationally is dominated by air travel,” the study said.

“Wuhan, the seventh largest city in China with 11 million residents, was the main relevant national air transportation hub with many international connecting flights before the city was effectively quarantined on January 23, 2020, and the Wuhan airport was closed. By then, the virus had already spread to other Chinese provinces, as well as to other countries, “he added.

The researchers said it is possible to estimate the probability that the virus will spread to other areas by observing the numbers of air travel passengers.

“The more crowded a flight route is, the more likely an infected passenger will travel on this route. Using these probabilistic concepts, we calculate the import risk relative to other airports. When calculating the import risk, we also take into account flights of connection and travel. routes that involve multiple destinations, “the study said.

The top 10 countries and regions at risk of importing coronavirus cases are: Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, USA. USA, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Cambodia, depending on the model.

While Thailand’s national import risk is 2.1 percent, for India it is 0.2 percent, according to research.

The basis of the model is the global air transport network (WAN) that connects approximately 4,000 airports with more than 25,000 direct connections.

The model explains both the current distribution of confirmed cases in mainland China and the airport closures that were implemented as a mitigation strategy.

This theoretical network model is based on the concept of effective distance and is an extension of a model introduced in the 2013 article “The hidden geometry of contagion phenomena controlled by complex networks” published in the journal Science.

The current outbreak of the 2019-nCoV virus began in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China. While the first cases were reported as early as December 8, 2019, the outbreak caught worldwide attention on December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was alerted to “several cases of pneumonia” by an unknown virus .

The new virus was soon identified as a new coronavirus and was named 2019-nCOV. It belongs to the family of viruses that include the common cold and viruses such as SARS and MERS. On January 20, 2020, it was confirmed that the coronavirus can be transmitted among humans, which greatly increases the risk of global spread.

The death toll due to the new outbreak of coronavirus in China increased to 813 on Sunday, surpassing that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003.

Although about 20 countries have confirmed cases, China accounts for approximately 99 percent of those infected. The first foreign victims of the virus died Saturday in Wuhan.

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