Elections to the Delhi assembly: exit polls predict another great mandate for AAP; BJP to make profits | Delhi Election 2020 Election News
All the polls gave AAP a 50% stake, which, if correct, would mean that, for the second time in a row, the party would have won the majority of the votes cast. The surveys also forecast another elimination for Congress and, in most cases, some improvement in the BJP count, although the magnitude of the increase varied from one survey to another. It was also projected that the percentage of BJP votes will increase in each of the polls.
If the surveys are correct, that would suggest that BJP’s commitment to focus on issues such as Shaheen Bagh had, in the best case, limited success, while the AAP strategy of focusing primarily on the work it had done was worth pain. However, senior BJP officials said exit polls would fail when votes are counted on February 11.
The Times Now-IPSOS survey was the most conservative when projecting an AAP victory, giving the party between 44 and 50 seats with a 52.5% vote share, a slight decrease from its 2015 figure of 54.3%. He gave BJP between 20 and 26 seats compared to the three he won in 2015.
It was even estimated that the percentage of BJP votes would increase from 32.8% in 2015 to 39% now. At the other end of the spectrum, the India Today-My Axis survey granted AAP between 59 and 68 seats with a 56% vote share, which would be even higher than the 2015 figure. In this survey, the BJP ended with between two and 11 seats, and their vote was distributed only slightly to 35%.
Somewhere between these two surveys was the ABP News CVoter survey, which suggested that AAP would win between 51 and 65 seats and a 50.8% vote share. It was estimated that BJP would end anywhere between three and 17 seats with a vote share of 36%. The ABP News survey was one of the few that suggested that Congress could win seats, projecting a range of one to three seats for the party with a vote share of 8.8%, slightly below the 2015 level.
The other two surveys mentioned here did not give Congress seats and vote participation in the 5-6% range. Other surveys suggested that AAP win more than three quarters of the seats despite the fact that BJP significantly increased its account of the three seats it won in 2015.