Elections in the Delhi assembly: what it will take for each party to win | Delhi Election 2020 Election News
If they are the last polls of the assembly, it is BJP that has to do a lot to review the AAP, whether it is the civic surveys of 2017 or the election of Lok Sabha of 2019, the roles are reversed. In 2015, the almost total sweep of AAP was backed by a 54.6% voting stake, which comfortably eclipsed 32.8% of BJP and, of course, the 9.7% that Congress won.
If we take this as the starting point, therefore, the minimum swing necessary for BJP to reach AAP is 10.9 percentage points. In other words, if 10.9% of the voters changed from AAP to BJP, both parties would end up with a 43.7% vote share (54.6 minus 10.9 and 32.8 plus 10.9). Of course, if there is a change away from AAP, but only one part goes to BJP and the rest goes to Congress or others, the application rate for the saffron party will be even higher.
If, on the other hand, we took the 2017 civic surveys as our starting point, 36.1% of BJP was well ahead of 26.2% of AAP and 21.1% of Congress. To close the gap, AAP will need to eliminate 5% of all BJP voters himself. That is, its demand rate is approximately half of what BJP needs to do with respect to the latest assembly surveys.
Again, this implies an orderly change from BJP to AAP. The gap between BJP and its rivals in 2019 was even greater than the AAP advantage in 2015. The saffron party won 56.9% of the votes, Congress was second with 22.6% and AAP third with 18.2 %. Since, according to all reports, Congress is not really in the race to win in Delhi this time, let’s see what it will take for AAP to close this gap. That works at an oscillation of 19.4 percentage points from BJP to AAP, which will leave them almost level at approximately 37.5% -37.6%.
None of these changes, except the one necessary since 2017, seems an easy task to achieve. But the good news for both parties is that they have already done so in the past, between 2015 and 2017 in the case of BJP and between 2014 and 2015 for AAP. The fact that the Delhi electorate grows so fast could also help. Between 2015 and 2019, the electorate grew from 133.1 lakh to 143.3 lakh, an increase of 10.2 lakh in just four years.
At the time of the current elections, that has already grown by another 3.7 lakh to reach 147 lakh. Part of this addition is that young people are getting old enough to vote, but many are also adult immigrants who come to the capital. Could they have the keys to these swings?