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Delhi Assembly Elections: AAP DABED Analysis, BJP and News Congress – India


NEW DELHI: In what promises to be a high-risk triangular contest between SPG, BJP and Congress, the elections for Delhi’s 70-member assembly will be held on February 8. The counting of votes will take place on 11 February.
The results, despite the generally limited role of “national” issues in state polls, will be seen as a verdict on recent incidents that have seen BJP and its opponents crash over accusations of “majority” and “intolerance” violence on campuses and laws such as the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA).
Here is a SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat) analysis of SPG, BJP and Congress:
SPG campaign to focus on Kejriwal
Seeking re-election in Delhi, Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi party is presenting his government’s performance and achievements in beating its BJP and Congress rivals in a contest set on Monday.
Is Kejriwal still a hero? The polls on 8 February will decide the fate of the CM and its political implementation.
Force: Leader established in Arvind Kejriwal, who remains a charismatic recipient of votes. He may have lost some middle-class support, but he will rely on pro-poor, populist schemes such as subsidized water and the power to court voters.
Weakness: No longer new, AAP is now a political party like any other, with its share of controversies. Poor results in the Lok Sabha polls where third place came is a concern for the party.
Opportunity: Presented as a “local” option, he hopes that the recent trend of regional parties that do well in state polls will work for it. The lack of a popular face after Sheila Dikshit has helped AAP position itself as an anti-BJP force.
Threat: The distribution of tickets is difficult, as repeating 67 MLa that they won in 2015 will be difficult. He can take on the rebels.
Banca en Modi, BJP is going to go to the polls without a CM candidate
In a departure from previous polls, BJP is set to contest the Delhi assembly elections without appointing its main ministerial candidate, as the party seeks votes on behalf of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the performance of the central government under him.
Force: He remained in his voting quota between the 2013 and 2015 assembly polls, sweeping lok Sabha’s elections in 2014 and 2019. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has as a mascot of the survey with promise of central aid in the development of Delhi.
Weakness: No CM candidate; the city’s heavyweights have not been achieved. The party needs to counter Kejiwal’s stature and initiatives on education, mohalla clinics, cheap energy and water.
Opportunity: It will lift the violence of CAA and Jamia and expect delays in Metro, the resignation of ministers and SPG disputes with city officials and MCDs dent AAP sheen.
Threat: If Congress performs lower, elections may become more bipolar, which could hurt BJP that can’t count on the 56% of the votes it got in the LS poll.
With new zeal, Congress turns around
In the triangular battle of the capital, it is Congress that is likely to face the toughest challenge. After serving three consecutive terms, from 1998 to 2013, the party was on the brink of the abyss in the 2013 assembly polls, achieving only eight places in the 70-member assembly. The worst, however, came a year later when SPG, in just its second choice, won a record 67 seats. Congress couldn’t even open his account.
Force: It came as a surprise when it came second in the LS election, the vote increased from 15% in 2014 to 22.5% in 2019. It indicates traction with its minority base and poorer voters.
Weakness: Sheila Dikshit’s death has seen the group resort to the old warhorse Subash Chopra. The organization of the party lacks cohesion, individual leaders do not
Opportunity: It could benefit from a perceived decline in IPG support, as it presents anti-BJP voters with an alternative. The successes in Maharashtra (post-poll) & Jharkhand, best show in Haryana are a boost for the match.
Threat: It could be squeezed between AAP and BJP if polls polarize and voters divided along secular saffron lines seek to consolidate.

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