Chennai/Kolkata, May 19 (): AIADMK and Mamata have hatched a plot to capture the opposition leader post of Lok Sabha. The plan can be successful only if the Speaker nominated by BJP approves the demand by the two parties.
The scenario might get complicated as Advani is tipped to be the Speaker. In that case even if Modi wants to favour AIADMK, it might come unstuck. Mamata wants the Deputy Speaker under the deal with AIADMK. The combined strength of AIADMK and TMC will be 71 more than Congress.
There have been two instances where the Speaker has given ruling in a similar situation. In the first ruling the Speaker went by the rule book that only opposition party which got 10% of seats in the House would get the post.
In a second instance, Speaker favoured the party with most number of seats in the opposition. Yet another reason is that post poll alliance between parties cannot be taken into account.
AIADMK points out that Mamata had already given her support to their candidates and can be taken as pre-poll alliance. The political angle is that BJP might support AIADMK but not TMC.
TMC is the greatest rival to BJP in Bengal and it would have no truck with it. Such a move to help TMC would backfire on BJP in Bengal as Left would go to town about this secret pact. AIADMK too would then be left without numbers.
Yet another compulsion for BJP is that AIADMK and TMC Rajya Sabha MPs’ support to pass bills is needed. In return, these two parties would ask for favours. AIADMK was hoping for BJP to fall short of numbers. If this happened then with 37 seats it would have dictated terms. As this has not happened now AIADMK is looking at opposition party leader post to discredit the Congress.
AIADMK seeking TMC support is where BJP would not go along with it. Advani would in all probability give the Opposition leader post to Congress.