Chennai, Apr 23 (): The opinion polls for Tamil Nadu Parliamentary elections have been conducted by Tamil magazines Junior Vikatan , Kumudham Reporter and Nakkeeran.
Moreover, the opinion polls by the National media through NDTV and CNN IBN have also covered Tamil Nadu and have published their results.
In this article, Truthdive wishes to sum up and compare the results of these opinion polls to arrive at a fair idea about the pulse of the electorates in Tamil Nadu. A scientific analysis is also conducted by Truthdive without considering other opinion polls and based on the strength of each political party as per previous assembly elections.
For analysis we go through the percentage of votes obtained by AIADMK alliance and DMK alliance in the assembly elections in 2006 & 2011. By taking average of these data of the two assembly elections, we have arrived at the individual vote share of each major party. Therefore, these figures can form a basis of preliminary assessment of vote share of alliances in the Parliamentary elections 2014.
The reason we take the assembly elections as a basis is that considering the vote share of parties in assembly elections is more accurate than taking vote share of previous parliamentary elections. Moreover, the recently held election was the assembly election 2011 and can be a dominant factor.
|2006||2011||% in 2014 Based on average of 2006 & 2011 assembly elections|
|Alliance/Party||Vote %||Alliance/Party||Vote %||Alliance/Party||Vote %|
|DMK+ alliance||44.80%||AIADMK+ alliance||51.90%||Individual parties|
By this way we see, the AIADMK is having a party vote share of 35.50%, the DMK+ 26.75%, the BJP+ 22.40% and INC 8.15%. However, this excludes factors like incumbency which may enhance the chances of DMK and Modi-based National politics which may favour BJP.
Since the BJP alliance is only an emerging third force, the winner or loser in most of the parliamentary constituencies will be only AIADMK or DMK considering the past trend of a bipolar mobilization of votes. These two parties are in direct contest in 35 seats. Further, we assume that the new voters are almost equally divided among the three players.
The overall strength of voters in Tamil Nadu is 5.38 crore including the new voters of 66 lakhs. That means 12.27% of new voters should make a difference but actually it may not. Kumudham Reporter, which has done opinion poll with most number of unpredictable dual results has also surveyed the mood of new voters.
According to their survey, following is the percentage share of each party for young voters. AIADMK 29.1%, BJP 22.7% and DMK 21.4%. According to our calculation, the party orientation of young voters by overall percentage shall be as below : AIADMK 4.36%, DMK 3.28% & BJP 2.75%. If we add this to the old individual share of voters, it is not making much difference. In other words, the new voters are split almost equally and therefore they are not going to tilt the results significantly. By including new voters, the descending order of priority in Tamil Nadu is still the same- AIADMK, DMK+, BJP+, INC.
Working out the number of seats to be won, out of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, based on the percentage of votes (average of 2006 and 2011 elections) shall be like this: AIADMK 14, DMK 10 , BJP+ 9 INC 3 , Others 3. However, this does not reflect the ground reality that the contest is mostly between two major parties DMK and AIADMK. Therefore a correction formula ( +x -y ) has been worked out based on the ratio of seats won and the percentage of votes obtained in the previous elections. As per our solution x=10 and y =3. This correction factor has to be applied to the number of seats calculated accurately as per vote share based on previous elections. Therefore AIADMK gets 14 + 10 -3 = 21. The DMK gets 10 + 10 – 3 = 17. The remaining 1 seat should go to BJP+.
The Truthdive formula shows 21,17,1 for AIADMK, DMK+ and BJP+ respectively. This is almost matching with NDTV projection of 22,14,3. But Truthdive prediction deviates from the CNN-IBN figures of 16,13,10 and Aaj Tak prediction of 20-24, 9-13, 4-6. One should understand that all the opinion polls are claimed to be conducted based on carefully selected representative samples spread in nook and corner of the state. That is how the media houses claim. This Truthdive projection is only a desk top analysis.
The CNN-IBN projection of more seats to BJP should be a bad news for Jayalalithaa since a comparison of NDTV and CNN-IBN opinion polls shows a slump for AIADMK is a gain for BJP while both agencies have almost shown the same number of seats for DMK. The tendency to over-estimate AIADMK and BJP and underestimating DMK is not hiding the fact that DMK shall be crossing the two-digit mark. Therefore, both DMK and AIADMK could not be ignored when the election results are declared. In a hung parliament, 10 seats means a lot.
The constituency-wise opinion polls for Tamil Nadu Parliamentary elections conducted by three Tamil magazines are compared in the Table.
|Constituency Name||Category||Junior Vikatan||Reporter||Nakkeeran|
We can sum up the above three opinion poll results as below:
The readers can have their own conclusion on these opinion polls conducted by Tamil magazines. Can we say that these media try to impose their views? Are they manipulating with hidden agenda? All these magazines have conducted opinion polls in Tamil Nadu. Then, how does the opinion of people of Tamil Nadu vary so much?
Junior Vikatan have an idea that people of Tamil Nadu vote differently for Parliament elections when compared to assembly elections. They assume that loss to AIADMK is a total gain to BJP. It is true only for a small fraction of the mass who respect both Narendra Modi and J.Jayalalithaa.The incumbency working against Jayalalithaa will favour more for DMK than BJP+. The DMK has already suffered in 2G and Eelam and reducing DMK vote percentage further shall be true only if we assume that Dayanidhi maran votes for Narendra Modi.
JV conducted opinion poll on a question of who should be the Prime Minister? Their result shows that 50.68% people favour Narendra Modi while Jayalalithaa got 25.71% and Rahul Gandhi got 21.37% . Junior Vikatan survey also predicts 28.75% of votes for BJP, 26.40% for AIADMK, 17.51% for DMK and 9.26% for INC. They have great guts in pushing AIADMK to second position and their wishful thinking has brought BJP to top. They are affected by “Cho Syndrome” which means Namo first Jaya next. After election results are declared JV may have to face the anger of JJ.
Kumudham reporter shows a deliberate attempt to put DMK at its lowest to appease the ruling establishment. In that process they have got confused and have produced dual predictions to show that they are neutral and to save their face when the election results are declared. This is called “tha.Pandyan” effect.
Nakkeeran is a known DMK organ next only to Dinakaran and Sun Media. Therefore they have no other way except to project incumbency, minority votes, Dalit votes as decisive factors. Their choice is DMK. No surprise. It is expected.
This analysis on opinion polls for Tamil Nadu Parliamentary elections means many people are not yet decided. They are going to make a decision only on 24.04.2014. We also wish to conclude that there shall be a split verdict in Tamil Nadu reflecting the mood of this great nation. Jai Hind! That shall bring a change. Jai Hind!We wish the change shall bring peace, prosperity and growth, the slogan raised by J.Jayalalithaa. Jai Hind! Wish you all a happy and enjoyable voting day. Jai Hind.
Kindly vote without fear and favour. As instructed by Bharathi, fear not at any trouble. In his own style we ask you
Fear not my soul. Fear not
Fear not when the politicians, police, Court , election commission and media turn against you
Fear not when the richest of the riches promise greedy treasure on you
Fear not when you have lost everything except your vote.
Fear not the clans campaigning for their caste.
Fear not when the merchants of gods seduce you.
You are neither in majority nor in minority.
You are the single. Assert yourself, fear not.
You neither belong to Kanyakumari nor to Kashmir.
You belong to the world of Humanity, Equality. Justice and Liberty.
Fear not my dear son and daughter
Of a Great Nation of the human heritage
She appears standing on a lotus with lot of golden hands
Still she is in the mud, quick sand and needs a support.
Save her by your single finger . Vote for Her.
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