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Exclusive India National News Politics Top Headlines

Modi first choice for UP voters

New Delhi, Feb 8 (): Modi is the most popular leader and is the best suited to be PM, says 48% of those who took part in India Today survey conducted in UP which has 80 LS seats.

The second choice is Rahul Gandhi with 15%. BJP’s challenge is Mayawati and not Mulayam in UP. The poll says Congress will face a drubbing and BJP will get 30 seats. The game changer would be a Congress-BSP alliance that could hit SP badly.

The survey was conducted from Jan 2 and Jan 30 this year and spread across 80 LS seats. About 9,331 respondents took part. Upper Doab region is where Modi draws support and the lowest in Ruhelhand. Modi’s popularity is the highest in Upper Doab region (58%) and lowest in Ruhelkhand (38%). Mulayam is popular in lower Doab.

Compared to Modi, Mayawati’s popularity is low uniformly except for Bunelkand. Comparing Modi’s popularity to Mulayam, the latter is two and a half times lesser and Rahul is three times lesser.

The entry of BJP PM candidate has led to upper caste consolidation. 48% of the upper castes have rallied behind Modi. At the same time, Congress lost 9 % of upper caste votes from the 2009 figure of 18%.

About 48% dalits are still with Mayawati. OBC considered the support base of Mulayam now shifting to BJP is the biggest news.

BJP has 34% of OBC support and Mulayam with 25% is second and Mayawati is third with 11% . Congress has only 6%. The survey dispels the notion that Modi’s entry has brought in Muslim concentration. In fact it is scattered and split into three ways.

SP despite the Muzzfarnagar riots gets 35% support of Muslim votes followed by Congress (22%) and BSP(21%).  BJP has only 7% support. SP voter base has lost 6% of the Assembly votes but still retains LS 2009. BJP has added 9% voter share at the cost of Congress which lost 7%.

Out of the 21 seats that Congress has currently, it will lose 17 of them. A Congress -BSP alliance can get 39 seats out of 80, says survey. SP will come down from 20 to 14 seats as Muslim votes will shift to Congress-BSP.

The survey shows that for BJP in UP is Mayawati and not Mulayam.