The proposed convention on communalism to be held on October 30 is bringing regional parties and Left parties under one umbrella although they may not forge a pre-poll alliance. There are reports that AIADMK leader Jayalalithaa may not participate in this convention but shall depute a senior leader. Is it because of pre-engagements or a tactical absence?
In Tamil Nadu, AIADMK cadres are already campaigning for Jayalalithaa to become the Prime Minister. The announcement that AIADMK would contest all the forty seats has set a tone and impression that AIADMK is planning for a key role in deciding who will be the Prime Minister.
Jayalalithaa has good relationship with Left party leaders and many regional leaders. But, she is also a friend of Narendra Modi. She is known for soft Hindutva. There are indications that she will not align with BJP in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls for retaining a secular face and offering a bridge to the Left parties. She avoided meeting Narendra Modi during his visits to Tamil Nadu. These two faces of Jayalalithaa is going to help Jayalalithaa in a post-poll scenario.
According to surveys and opinion polls, BJP is set to become the single largest party in the next Lok Sabha elections. But, it cannot touch the majority mark. Who will support BJP in that case? The proposed anti-communal alliance will not accept Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister. But, BJP can support Jayalalithaa if she can lead a third front formed after the polls. She may have to compete with Mulayam Singh and Nitish Kumar. However, BJP cannot accept them. Therefore, Jayalalithaa shall be the only choice.
The Congress party should have sensed such a situation and recently there were unusual scenes of participation of Congress and AIADMK leaders in official functions. Therefore, in case the Left parties refuse to accept the support of BJP in a post-poll arrangement, Congress can come forward to support a Government under the leadership of Jayalalithaa to protect the secularism and oppose the communalism. Good fortunes await Jayalalithaa but it depends on the performance of AIADMK in the Lok Sabha polls.