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Future Arab Spring protests to lose steam if resultant governments not up to mark

Washington, Apr. 2 (ANI): The protests that swept across the Middle East and North Africa could mark more of an isolated occurrence than a permanent rise of people power in the region, a new research has warned.

Princeton politics professor Adam Meirowitz and New York University politics Professor Joshua Tucker laid out a theoretical model to find an answer to why people who take on the considerable costs and risks of protesting to change the type of government in their country sometimes stay off the streets when the new government turns out to be just as bad.

The innovation in the theory and the paper, Meirowitz said, is the emphasis on what people in countries that are moving from a non-democratic regime toward democracy learn about all possible democratic governments if their first – or first few – are “bad,” which could mean unable to obtain results, sloppy, uninterested in citizen welfare or willing to engage in corruption.

While the long-term impact of the Arab Spring protests that first erupted at the end of 2010 isn’t yet clear, Meirowitz and Tucker argue that a recent example in Ukraine offers a demonstration of the theory in action.

The 2005 Orange Revolution in Ukraine that drew thousands to the streets swept Viktor Yanukovych out of office in response to his 2004 re-election, which was widely seen as corrupt. But in 2010, he returned to power and the streets remained quiet despite an opponent’s claims of new electoral fraud.

The idea proposed by Meirowitz and Tucker could have implications for the foreign policy of the United States and other nations, by emphasizing the importance not just of the change in the type of government of nations but in the regime that follows. (ANI)