In a book release function organised recently, Superstar Rajinikanth has stated that if he arrives, his path in politics will be a unique path. This has raised an habitual speculation about Rajinikanth’s entry in politics.
The statement assumes significance because it is widely interpreted as launching a new party of his own with his own policies which will be filled with innovative ideas on development of people. It is not known whether he will form a regional party or a National party. If it is a national party that will be unique since it begins from the south.
Earlier he was known to support DMK when late GK Moopanar came out of the Congress party revolting against Narasimha Rao’s preferred alliance with AIADMK. At that time Moppanar launched Tamil Maanila Congress and formed an alliance with DMK, which was successful.
In the last assembly election, Rajinikanth’s personal candid support to Jayalalithaa was exposed by a television channel when the actor was caught in camera showing his casting of vote to two leaves symbol of AIADMK.
Interestingly, senior journalist and RSS supporter Cho Ramasamy was closely associated with Rajinikanth in both occasions. However one cannot imagine that Rajinikanth can be dictated by Mr. Cho. Ramasamy. Rajinikanth always has decided his own course based on the time and the performance of the incumbent Government. In both occasions he was successfully associating with right political combinations sensing public mood as he was getting right feed backs from his fans.
He always declares that he is waiting for a time for his arrival which is known only to God.
What will be the fate of a political party if Rajinikanth launches at this time?
The political scenario in Tamil Nadu is fragmented as much as in National politics.
Another actor Vijayakanth who was never a superstar but fondly called as Captain by his fans and followers launched his own party and in the last assembly election he contested in alliance with AIADMK and successfully wrested the post of Opposition leader from the mainstream DMK. The backbone of the DMDK launched by Vijayakanth depends on the Tamils of Telugu origin who are historically well integrated in the Tamil society under the castes named Naidu, Naicker and Arundhadhiar.
The Dalit votes in the north of Tamil Nadu are mobilised by Thirumavalavan, the founder leader of VCK who shares Tamil Nationalist platforms and at the same time keeps an alliance with DMK and Congress party. The dalit votes in the south are rallying behind Dr. Krishnaswamy who was a part of AIADMK alliance in the last election.
The vanniar community votes are mobilised by Dr. Ramadoss who is at present in a course of forming a non-Dalit coalition of Backward castes.
The national party, Congress rides on DMK now. Although Tamil Nadu is a land of temples, BJP could not establish itself in Tamil Nadu since the pro-Hindutva voters prefer voting Jayalalithaa who leads a Dravidian party for her soft Hindutva policies. Due to Eelam issue in the recent election, a Tamil nationalist movement by fiery orator Seeman strongly campaigned for Jayalalithaa. MGR followers are the mass solid vote bank behind Jayalalithaa.
The DMK although tainted by 2G scam and accused of betraying Tamils in Eelam issue is still a force as an alternative to AIADMK banking on the failure of AIADMK in the performance in Governance as a ruling party. DMK too has its core vote bank which can never be swayed by anything.
The people cannot be swayed by waves like the ones created by MGR or NTR. Rajinikanth wave comes and goes in big and small wavelengths, that too only occasionally. He cannot create a Tsunami submerging all the above political forces which are deep entrenched in caste, religion and language politics.
Rajinikanth is so intelligent that unless he is very sure of getting success he will not enter politics. This may be difficult to digest for his fans. There is a possibility if the organisational strength of DMK is broken after a division in DMK and when Jayalalithaa becomes unpopular. He can then float a new party leading a coalition of a broken wing of DMK and Congress party to contest against Jayalalithaa.