Can Rajinikanth replace Jayalalithaa?

Can Rajinikanth replace Jayalalithaa?

Chennai, Oct 14 (TruthDive):  Everyone was thinking that Jayalalithaa can be replaced only by another Jayalalithaa. She has no match. Now Rajinikanth is projected as a leader to fill the political vacuum  created in the absence of Jayalalithaa. Without proper Public relation exercises it will be very tough to build up a political image for Rajinikanth. For this the popularity of AIADMK has to be brought down drastically by manufacturing opinion against Jayalalithaa. It is unlikely.

If BJP can bring in Rajinikanth, the additional votes should come from some other party. DMK and other minor political parties still possess  fixed vote banks. But even these vote banks have been spent and touched a minimum level in the recent Parliament elections. Therefore the campaign for Rajinikanth can mostly  target only AIADMK votes. You can take only from where it is abundantly available.

The  AIADMK vote bank cannot be suddenly brought down to half of its numbers. That means if Rajinikanth floats a party or go for BJP the strategy should be worked out. There should be a split in votes of AIADMK  for the success of Rajinikanth. That will further fracture the people of Tamil nadu.

Creating political uncertainty and disturbing the political stability of Tamil nadu is hidden behind. Such a motivation can be traced to the recent events surrounding Jayalalithaa and efforts to rope in Rajinikanth.

Again the guess game of probability has started. Rajinikanth may come or may not come. He may  join BJP or may not. He may float political party or may not. He may express voice of support to BJP or may not. Rajinikanth is enjoying the may or may not game. Rajiniknth may also backtrack saying ” God only knows”, ” Even if I come late, I will come as latest”. If he drags like this it will be too late. Such a bad reputation in making decision does not augur well for a person aspiring for a top post. Procrastination in decision making goes against the principles of good leadership. A person with endless wavering mind may lead Tamil Nadu to disaster. Already the tables have been turned, with Bihar at top and Tamil nadu at bottom in growth rate.

The rumors about political entry of Rajinikanth can promote  Linga. After successful Linga Rajinikanth may decide about it. That will be the latest.

Ever since the Dravidian movements gave undue importance to the talents in the screen, the Tamil people are addicted to following the film stars. The workers at grass root level can never become a top most leader in a political party which can capture power. It is either dynastic rule or a film star rule. Why this land of ancient culture cannot evolve a good leader? There is no evolution of leadership in Tamil nadu. It is always imposition of leadership. Tamil people have become drunkards and the rest are sleeping.

Now another puppet show has been announced. The main puppet is proposed to be Rajinikanth. It is easier for BJP to rope in Rajinikanth since he himself is a follower of ideals of BJP. Anyway he may not go against the policies of social justice carefully implemented in Tamil nadu. The communal tag tainting BJP shall also taint Rajinikanth. But communal tag does not mean electoral defeat. In fact it brings success.

MGR avoided drinking and smoking in his films, Rajinikanth films show the times have changed and virtues are given a go bye in the screen plays. However Rajinikanth is not concerned about his physical appearance in real world. He promotes human values personally. The faith, virtue, devotion, philosophy are intermingled. The films of Rajinikanth such as Ragavendra and Baba were in tune with the policies of BJP. Nothing wrong. If this is the way India has to reconnect with its ancient culture and this is the trend, let Tamil nadu follow. A millennium back Bakthi movement originated from Tamil nadu and spread to north India .

Rajinikanth naturally fits in to the role in BJP. Definitely Rajinikanth can add up to BJP. But there is a possibility that BJP will reduce the image of Rajinikanth. Tamil nadu need not worry about it. Nothing can destroy the indigenous culture of India well preserved in Tamil nadu. If Dravidian movements have gone in a wrong direction, the BJP has to come in and try to do well following the policies developed by Periyar and Anna and take the same to the north.

If Rajinikanth is a rider and BJP is a horse, the horse can run using its horse power in the central government operated by Narendtra modi. If BJP is the rider and Rainikanth is a horse then we must understand that it is a old horse not trained for a running race. So far the horse has been rented for shooting and it has done well. But running on track is a different game.

Hope Rajinikanth do not meet the fate of Vijayakanth. Good start but bad finish.

We can very well imagine a  CM Rajinikanth arguing with the opposition leader Vijayakanth in the Tamil Nadu legislative assembly. A Kanth Vs Kanth show that can be successfully run in social media. A competition will erupt on claiming who is fit to be Black MGR.


Yesudas and Jeans

Yesudas and Jeans

Chennai, Oct 4 (TruthDive): Yesudas was never before caught in this kind of controversy. His voice is always sweet. Now, his words have become bitter to woman. His views about women’s attire has drawn critical remarks about his personality. Let us see his words.

Women wearing jeans disturb others.

Is it true?

Generally if we think purely about physical attraction, women or men whether they wear a particular dress or not they naturally disturb the opposite sex  when they are young. That is the reality. Young people are not sages or ascetics. They are in search of a mating partner by their basic instincts. The view of Yesudas is only against Jeans. Therefore, his view is not that much conclusive.

Jesudas adds:

They should not try to become like men

For a feminist, this comment should sound regressive. The trend now is that the women get qualified, get their job, earn money and spend just like men. They are no more dependent on men for anything. Women assert that anything done by men can be done by them. That is the equality they have achieved as per their claims. Then why Yesudas should command like this? Can a woman become a man by wearing jeans?

For Mahila Congress, it is “anti-woman” comment. According to activist Ajitha, the singer acted like a typical male chauvinist and she has found a sexist streak in the singer. For film-maker Geetu Mohandas, it is an issue of freedom and right to wear dress of their choice.

Well, everyone has all the rights. The right to food, the right for education etc. Similarly, there is a right to wear a dress of one’s own choice. That comes under human rights rather than women’s rights. We wonder why Yesudas has forgotten that he is living in the age of freedom and liberty of individuals.

See now,  this 74-year-old singer has suddenly become anti-woman, male chauvinist and sexist. The respected senior citizen has lost his respect among women or feminists.

Similar treatment was awarded to writer Jeyamohan recently. Mr. Yesudas and Jeyamohan could not forget these awards poured on them by eminent feminists.

If people like Muthalik  can be blamed for their religious and political colours, people like Jeyamohan and Yesudas have to be categorised in some other group of men. J or Y are not watchdogs.

But, a face of cultural police is hidden in every man. This cannot be denied. In fact, it is not police but army. In the history of civilisation, men have suffered a lot in protecting their woman. Millions of men have perished in wars protecting the land. For them protecting the land means protecting the women. They sacrificed. The land itself is a woman, not because it bears everything patiently but because it has to be protected from enemies. The remains of those warriors are hidden in the minds of the modern men.

The cautious voices like that of Yesudas need not be exaggerated to bring out a demon out of a beautiful singer. For Yesudas too, it is good to see him singing than talking.

Originally, the clothes were meant for protecting a human body from weather condition. Therefore people in different geographical conditions were covering or uncovering themselves differently.

The nature has evolved the human body for a man and woman in such a manner to complement each other . Their organs should unite to make a whole for further reproduction. Therefore they have different physical conditions and appearance. That is why they have to wear different dresses. For example, the man and woman should have convenience to attend the nature call. Woman cannot simply unzip and piss out. Probably Yesudas should have explained that way.

Or, Yesudas should have advised the people to avoid synthetics and wear thin cotton only suitable for the climatic condition.

But, he chose to invite Indian culture to justify his anti-jeans comment. The modern woman gets angry whenever men dictate in the name of culture. The dictates of men can be considered to betray their ill intentions.  In the past centuries women were denied education. They were not allowed to go out freely. They were denied property rights. Remarriage was not considered. She was asked to jump in to the funeral fire of her husband. All in the name of culture or religion. Malala or Kushboo and many other women can  express their views correctly in their good senses. Definitely any adverse comments about men will never draw any attention from men or media.

Perhaps Yesudas is aged and there is one or two generation gap between the modern young woman and Yesudas. He is expected to say only wise words. Then how Yesudas could speak the following words so unwise ? Is it really unwise? What and where is the error

What should be covered must be covered.

What is that? The breast or the lips or the hips?

The  jeans can cover  the body well. But, the tightness shows the contours of the figure. Similar is the T-shirt. Most of the women in India do not wear jeans. They are always well covered, not by the dictates of men or religion. They do it themselves. They know they have to protect themselves from the male wolves. Which good woman would wish that all the men looking at them should gaze with lusty feelings?

Yesudas knows well about the film industry. In this field, women are exploited to a maximum level. There it is not about a particular dress. It is about having a dress or not. There the navel area of women is meant for play. The breasts and cleavages are available for display. Men dictate women to do it. Women do it not because they like it.

If women are capable of living without the help of men and can get social protection by themselves, then better men shut up their mouths and reduce themselves to be sex toys. The future shall be in the hands of women. Until we achieve a reverse life, Yesudas is allowed to speak.

Indian Democracy delivers against corruption

Indian Democracy delivers against corruption

Chennai, Sep 28 (TruthDive): Corruption is rampant and is a part of illegal political administration in India.It pervades everywhere including the highest positions of  Government, Executive and Judiciary. And of course Media.

Persons occupying the highest position in Government are expected to stand on a high moral ground. He/ She takes oath mostly in the name of God. In practice, the oath is mere a formality of assuming office to usurp power. They betray the people and commit treachery. They function against the very constitution which they are expected to uphold. Therefore their acts are illegal. The maxim of their wrongdoings result in sins because they do not fear God. Therefore they ultimately breakdown and fail. Their empire itself crumbles.

When a leader of political party becomes a leader of a Government, he/she should understand that the scope of leadership has now widened and covers all. The responsibility is more and accountability starts. Power should bring courtesy, not arrogance. A person assuming the office of the Prime Minister or Chief Minister should abandon their individual whims and fancies and mingle with a collective conscience. Indian leaders have failed in this respect. Their failure is ensured and confirmed by other institutions in democracy.

After assuming office, access to public money makes the leader corrupt. May be ¼th  0r 1/3rd  or even ½ of the Budget  spent on Government projects goes to the ruling political party. That is how political leadership from grass root level is watered and nourished.

People do not have direct powers to punish a corrupt political leader. They simply discuss about it and wait to vote  for an alternate corrupt political party in the next election. Until then, they have a lot of things to think about and do for their own lives. Some individuals join hands and make a mushroomy movement against corruption.

The opponent political parties tirade charges of corruption against each other. In case of underground understanding, they will maintain silence on specific cases. But, misunderstanding among the political parties and competition to swindle public money make them more arrogant and hostile towards each other. They start to betray each other. Cases are foisted in the courts. Such betrayals are very good in the interest of public welfare.

Recently, courts have become proactive about corruption cases and are willing to take suo motto action. Now courts are tougher.

The institution of CAG audits the functioning of the Government,  find procedural lapses and assess loss to exchequer. Recently, they have also intensified without obliging to the political masters.

The development of technology has enabled the evidences of corruption to go public through media. The media too has a tendency to underplay the cases of their favourites and exaggerate  cases of their perceived opponents in polity. However, it is a good development that media are not neutral and divided among pro and anti-ruling party. That enhances the degree of betrayal and treachery against evil forces.

There are two ways to punish the crime of corruption: Direct Evidence Method and Indirect Evidence Method.

Direct Evidence Method: Irrefutable evidences have to be gathered in a specific corruption case and a case can be filed by anyone  against a political leader involved in corruption. But these cases are not successful since the evidences are erased or are not strong enough to prove the corruption charges in the courts.

Indirect Evidence Method: The second indirect method is to file disproportionate asset case. This type of case shall deal about illegal money invested in assets. Here, it is easier to gather evidence as per  records.

So far, the cases have been dealt under the following sections and verdicts have been delivered in the lower courts.

  1. Indian Penal Code sections 420 (cheating) and 120(B) (criminal conspiracy), as well as section 13(2) of the Prevention of Corruption Act, 1988
  2. Wealth disproportionate to known sources of income under Sections 109 and 120 (b) of the Indian Penal Code (IPC) and 13 of the Prevention of Corruption Act, 1988.

A court verdict assumes more value when people see it as a verdict of virtue rather than that of a constitution.

The loopholes in judicial administration in India is either getting sealed or becoming smaller. Small fishes can escape. Whales have to float ashore.

Now we hope Indian democracy can deal with it, the monster of corruption.


Arvind Kejriwal Promises in Varanasi Manifesto 2014

Arvind Kejriwal Promises in Varanasi Manifesto 2014

Chennai, May 3 (TruthDive): If Arvind Kejriwal is elected in Varanasi constituency, can he improve the city to the satisfaction of the people of Varanasi? It may not be possible if Arvind Kejriwal sits in opposition. It is possible in case AAP becomes a part of post poll third-party alliance.  Varanasi 2014 Manifesto issued by the AAP lists out the promises made by Arvind Kejriwal to the residents of Varanasi.

Based on this Manifesto, we  have prepared imaginary questions as if they are raised by Varanasi citizens and answers as if they are furnished by the AAP workers. Yes, this is Aam Aadmi of Varanasi Vs Aam Aadmi cadre (comments in brackets are the thoughts of an invisible third person).

What is your special promise for Varanasi?

Varanasi will be declared as a Holy City. Varanasi will become a Cultural city. The people following all faiths shall  live in harmony. Therefore Varanasi will become the Spiritual Capital of the world! (Our leader Arvind Kejriwal himself took a dip in Ganga before starting his campaign. This is the real spiritual act. He is the real Hindu. Our opponents who are supposed to be proponents of Hindu religion are already rejected by Hindu  religious scholars. They hope that Arvind Kejriwal will not indulge in activities like demolition of mosque or killing of the followers of other religions)

What about the Holy Ganga?

River Ganga and the ghats shall be cleaned up. Further, pollution shall be prevented. Plastic shall be banned. (When everyone is cleansed of their sins by taking bath in Ganga, the river itself shall be internally cleansed by Lord Shiva and externally by AAP of Arvind Kejriwal. Need filters instead of sweepers).

What is in store for tourists?

New better roads shall be laid with special focus on cleanliness around historical and religious places. To reduce traffic problems, bypass roads shall be constructed. Mono rail system shall be introduced. (Through such infrastructure investment, Arvind Kejriwal will prevent scams like Commonwealth game scam or Adharsh scam)

Do you have anything on Health and Education front?

Yes. An institute on the lines of the All India Institute of Medical Sciences at the Banaras Hindu University (BHU) shall be set up. More PHCs shall be opened in villages around Varanasi.( After becoming MP, Arvind Kejriwal  will not open Engineering College or Medical College in his name or in the name of his relatives to earn money).

How do you propose to improve the livelihood of local population?

The people who are predominantly contributing to the economy of Varanasi shall be taken care. They are weavers, fishermen, boat men, wood sculptors. Special economic packages shall be instituted for the city. (The corporate business shall be barred from selling products which affect the livelihood of the locals. More money will pour in to Varanasi from tourists. All money shall be used for locals. No money shall go out of Varanasi).


Well, back to our opinion…

The Manifesto of Arvind Kejriwal appears to be very reasonable. This AAP method “A Constituency A manifesto” shall fix responsibility on a member of Parliament to take care of his constituency in the next 5 years. There shall be one agenda to follow and one time frame to accomplish.

Apart from the above, Arvind Kejriwal has promised more in AAP Manifesto for Varanasi. They pertain to water supply and electricity. These are to be taken care by the State government and Civic bodies to a larger extent. These micro level promises are generally offered by all and there is nothing new.

The promises that can be fulfilled for a parliamentary constituency by staying in Delhi are more realistic and attractive. Let us see the choice of  Varanasians.

But whoever is declared elected from Varanasi, the Manifesto set by the AAP should be the guideline or a road map for the development of this city.

The practice of abolishing or not considering the plans and schemes announced by an opponent political party shall never help the ruling party anymore. That is the new trend. If they insist on such a practice, they shall be thrown into the dustbin of history and new players with more positive approach like AAP will emerge who will successfully implement whatever is good for a constituency and in turn to the country. When a ruling party and main opposition party in a country become  identical political organisations,  emergence of a third force is inevitable.



Rajiv Gandhi Assassination – Killers or Convicts?

Rajiv Gandhi Assassination – Killers or Convicts?

Chennai, Apr 26 (TruthDive): In Rajiv Gandhi assassination case, Indian media is calling the convicts as killers. This is a classic case in which at least one of the convicts Perarivaalan is claiming innocence but has been awarded death penalty. He is repeatedly called as ‘killer’ thousands of times in hundreds of media all over the world.

Perarivaalan. ( This Tamil  name can be translated as ‘the man who rules great knowledge’). He was young when he went to prison. His personality has been assassinated every minute for decades. He is now in the middle age. No one knows whether this man will die inside or outside. More and more hair will turn grey. More and more time will be taken to examine the Great Indian Constitution. What is his fate?

The following are the recent title headlines in Indian media about the release of the convicts in Rajiv Gandhi assassination case.

Supreme Court refers Rajiv Gandhi killers’ release case to …
Indian Express

Why a BJP govt may be good for Rajiv Gandhi’s killers?

Rajiv Gandhi`s killers to stay in jail, for now
Zee News

Rajiv Gandhi’s killers to remain in jail
India Today

No relief for Rajiv Gandhi killers; SC refers case to constitutional bench

SC defers Rajiv Gandhi killers’ case to constitutional bench
Delhi Daily News

The Main stream, Sub stream, Undercurrent and Lava media call seven convicts including the following three persons as killers. V Sriharan alias Murugan, AG Perarivalan alias Arivu, and T Suthendraraja alias Santhan.

Once upon a time , one woman called Dhanu acted as human suicide bomber and killed Rajiv Gandhi. She was the killer. She committed both homicide and suicide. The rest of the alleged persons can be called as conspirators. After the sentence is awarded by the court, they are to be called convicts. Only the person who is directly involved in a killing can be called a killer.

Other important alleged person Sivarasan was killed by the police. In 2009, V.Prabakaran, chief of LTTE, alleged to have ordered the assassination was  killed. But that is not enough for revenge, it appears. Why no one understands that Revenge is not Justice?

Is the killer alive now?

Is the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case closed? What happened to the allegations of conspiracy by many Indian citizens and VIPs enquired by Jain Commission? Will you call all of them as killers?

a person or thing that kills someone or something
a : one that has a forceful, violent, or striking impact
b : one that is extremely difficult to deal with

The killer is an apt word more widely used for denoting a thing than a person. Why the English media enjoy using the word “killer” to the alleged persons who are convicts now? The case of Perarivalan is very peculiar and it is widely reported that he is innocent. Calling him a killer is the most damaging attack on human rights.

Those who have time,  can read this story by Leo Tolstoy.” God Sees the Truth, But Waits”

In this story, an innocent ” Aksianov” is punished for a murder and  spends his life in Siberia prison and dies after meeting and helping the real culprit. Wonderful story. Here we see some excerpts in the beginning and the climax of the story.

And Aksionov wrote no more petitions; gave up all hope, and only prayed to God.

Aksionov was condemned to be flogged and sent to the mines. So he was flogged with a knot, and when the wounds made by the knot were healed, he was driven to Siberia with other convicts.

For twenty-six years Aksionov lived as a convict in Siberia. His hair turned white as snow, and his beard grew long, thin, and grey. All his mirth went; he stooped; he walked slowly, spoke little, and never laughed, but he often prayed.


When Aksionov heard him sobbing he, too, began to weep. “God will forgive you!” said he. “Maybe I am a hundred times worse than you.” And at these words his heart grew light, and the longing for home left him. He no longer had any desire to leave the prison, but only hoped for his last hour to come.

In spite of what Aksionov had said, Makar Semyonich confessed, his guilt. But when the order for his release came, Aksionov was already dead.

Hope  Perarivaalan is not Indian Aksionov. If the above happens to Perarivaalan, there will be no God. A section of population led by Arputhammal, mother of Perarivaalan is waiting for him outside the gates. Arputhammal is a fighting mother who will never give up. They all expect Perarivalan to come out, get married, enjoy his life, get everything, speak a lot,  smile, laugh and share his experiences.

It is a pity that the Supreme Court of India has referred this case to a larger constitutional bench to be dragged for a further period. All along this period, the media is going to call Perarivaalan a killer. The Supreme Court which criticized the delay in processing mercy petition now must bestow mercy on these persons so that they come out of the prison alive. Showing Mercy shall never have any conflict with the Justice.

We have to pose a question. Is it a question of who has the power to kill or release the convict? The state Government or Central Government? Why is this question raised now after a prolonged trial ? How many doubts and questions are yet to come? How many more years you are going to torture an innocent? Is it to safeguard the real culprits?

For media, the court has awarded more chances to kill the English word “Killer”. Kindly do not use this word on at least one person who is suspected to be innocent. You have already killed him many times. Then why this kolavery?


More from Askianov of Leo Tolstoy

“So you, too, suspect me!” said Aksionov, and, hiding his face in his hands, he began to weep. Then a soldier came to say that the wife and children must go away; and Aksionov said good-bye to his family for the last time.

When they were gone, Aksionov recalled what had been said, and when he remembered that his wife also had suspected him, he said to himself, “It seems that only God can know the truth; it is to Him alone we must appeal, and from Him alone expect mercy.”


“It is easy for you to talk,” said Aksionov, “but I have suffered for you these twenty-six years. Where could I go to now?… My wife is dead, and my children have forgotten me. I have nowhere to go…”


Opinion Polls for Tamil Nadu Parliamentary Elections 2014

Opinion Polls for Tamil Nadu Parliamentary Elections 2014

Chennai, Apr 23 (TruthDive): The opinion polls for Tamil Nadu Parliamentary elections have been conducted by Tamil magazines Junior Vikatan , Kumudham Reporter and Nakkeeran.

Moreover, the opinion polls by the National media through NDTV and CNN IBN have also covered Tamil Nadu and have published their results.

In this article, Truthdive wishes to sum up and compare the results of these opinion polls to arrive at a fair idea about the pulse of the electorates in Tamil Nadu. A scientific analysis is also conducted by Truthdive without considering other opinion polls and based on the strength of each political party as per previous assembly elections.

For analysis we go through the percentage of votes obtained by AIADMK alliance and DMK alliance in the assembly elections in 2006 & 2011. By taking average of these data of the two assembly elections, we have arrived at the individual vote share of each major party. Therefore, these figures can form a basis of preliminary assessment of vote share of alliances in the Parliamentary elections 2014.

The reason we take the assembly elections as a basis is that  considering the vote share of parties in assembly elections is more accurate than taking vote share of previous parliamentary elections. Moreover, the recently held election was the assembly election 2011 and can be a dominant factor.

2006 2011 % in 2014 Based on average of 2006 & 2011 assembly elections
Alliance/Party Vote % Alliance/Party Vote % Alliance/Party Vote %
DMK+ alliance 44.80% AIADMK+ alliance 51.90% Individual parties
DMK 26.50% AIADMK 38.40% AIADMK 35.50%
INC 8.40% DMDK 7.90% DMK 24.45%
PMK 5.70% CPI(M) 2.40% INC 8.15%
CPI(M) 2.70% CPI 2.00% DMDK 8.85%
CPI 1.60% MNMK 0.50% MDMK 6.00%
AIADMK+ alliance 39.90% PT 0.40% PMK 5.45%
AIADMK 32.60% AIFB 0.20% CPI M 2.55%
MDMK 6.00% DMK+ alliance 39.50% BJP 2.10%
VCK 1.30% DMK 22.40% CPI 1.80%
Others 15.30% INC 9.30% VCK 1.40%
DMDK 8.40% PMK 5.20% KMK 1.00%
BJP 2.00% VCK 1.50% PT 0.40%
KMK 1.00% MNMK 0.50%
BJP 2.20%
Others 3.00% Others 14.30% Others 1.85%
Total 100% Total 100% 100%

By this way we see, the AIADMK is having a party vote share of 35.50%, the DMK+ 26.75%, the BJP+ 22.40% and INC 8.15%. However, this excludes factors like incumbency which may enhance the chances of DMK and Modi-based National politics which may favour BJP.

Since the BJP alliance is only an emerging third force, the winner or loser in most of the parliamentary constituencies will be only AIADMK or DMK considering the past trend of a bipolar mobilization of votes. These two parties are in direct contest in 35 seats. Further, we assume that the new voters are almost equally divided among the three players.

The overall strength of voters in Tamil Nadu is 5.38 crore including the new voters of 66 lakhs. That means 12.27% of new voters should  make a difference but actually it may not. Kumudham Reporter, which has done opinion poll with most number of unpredictable  dual results has also surveyed the mood of new voters.

According to their survey, following is the percentage share of each party for young voters. AIADMK 29.1%, BJP 22.7% and DMK 21.4%.  According to our calculation, the party orientation of young voters  by  overall percentage shall be as below : AIADMK  4.36%, DMK 3.28% & BJP 2.75%. If we add this to the old individual share of voters, it is not making much difference. In other words, the new voters are split almost equally and therefore they are not going to tilt the results significantly. By including new voters, the descending order of priority in Tamil Nadu is still the same- AIADMK, DMK+, BJP+, INC.

Working out the number of seats to be won,  out of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu,  based on the percentage of votes (average of 2006 and 2011 elections)  shall be like this: AIADMK 14, DMK 10 , BJP+ 9 INC 3 , Others 3. However, this does not reflect the ground reality that the contest is mostly between two major parties DMK and AIADMK. Therefore a correction formula ( +x -y ) has been worked out based on the ratio of seats won and the percentage of votes obtained in the previous elections. As per our solution x=10 and y =3. This correction factor has to be applied to the number of seats calculated accurately as per vote share based on previous elections. Therefore AIADMK gets 14 + 10 -3 = 21. The DMK gets 10 + 10 – 3 = 17. The remaining 1 seat should go to BJP+.

The Truthdive formula shows 21,17,1 for AIADMK, DMK+ and BJP+ respectively. This is almost matching with NDTV projection of 22,14,3. But Truthdive prediction deviates from the CNN-IBN figures of 16,13,10 and Aaj Tak prediction of 20-24, 9-13, 4-6. One should understand that all the opinion polls are claimed to be conducted based on carefully selected representative samples spread in nook and corner of the state. That is how the media houses claim. This Truthdive projection  is only a desk top analysis.

The CNN-IBN projection of more seats to BJP should be a bad news for Jayalalithaa since a comparison of NDTV and CNN-IBN opinion polls shows a slump for AIADMK is a gain for BJP while both agencies have almost shown the same number of seats for DMK. The tendency to over-estimate AIADMK and BJP and underestimating DMK is not hiding the fact that DMK shall be crossing the two-digit mark. Therefore, both DMK and AIADMK could not be ignored when the election results are declared. In a hung parliament, 10 seats means a lot.

The constituency-wise opinion polls for Tamil Nadu Parliamentary elections  conducted by three Tamil magazines are compared in the Table.

Constituency Name Category Junior Vikatan Reporter  Nakkeeran
Chennai Central GEN DMK DMK DMK
Sriperumbudur GEN DMK DMK DMK
Dharmapuri GEN PMK PMK PMK
Chidambaram (SC) VC AIADMK VC
Nagapattinam (SC) DMK DMK DMK
Ramanathapuram GEN DMK DMK DMK
Tenkasi (SC) PT PT/DMDK PT
Kanniyakumari GEN BJP BJP BJP

We can sum up the above three opinion poll results as below:

Parties Junior Vikatan Reporter Nakkeeran
AIADMK 15 21 15
DMK+ 14 5 21
Unclear 10  1
BJP+ 10 3 2
Total 39 39 39

The readers can have their own conclusion on these opinion polls conducted by Tamil magazines. Can we say that these media try to impose their views? Are they manipulating with hidden agenda? All these magazines have conducted opinion polls in Tamil Nadu. Then, how does the opinion of people of Tamil Nadu vary so much?

Junior Vikatan have an idea that people of Tamil Nadu vote differently for Parliament elections when compared to assembly elections. They assume that loss to AIADMK is a total gain to BJP. It is true only for a small fraction of the mass who respect both Narendra Modi and J.Jayalalithaa.The incumbency working against Jayalalithaa will favour more for DMK than BJP+. The DMK has already suffered in 2G and Eelam and reducing DMK vote percentage further shall be true only if we assume that Dayanidhi maran votes for Narendra Modi.

JV conducted opinion poll on a question of  who should be the Prime Minister? Their result shows that 50.68% people favour Narendra Modi while Jayalalithaa got 25.71% and Rahul Gandhi got 21.37% . Junior Vikatan survey also predicts 28.75% of votes  for BJP, 26.40% for AIADMK, 17.51% for DMK and 9.26% for INC. They have great guts in pushing AIADMK to second position and their wishful thinking has brought BJP to top. They are affected by “Cho Syndrome” which means Namo first Jaya next. After election results are declared JV may have to face the anger of  JJ.

Kumudham reporter shows a deliberate attempt to put DMK at its lowest to appease the ruling establishment. In that process they have got confused and have produced dual predictions to show that they are neutral and to save their face when the election results are declared. This is called “tha.Pandyan” effect.

Nakkeeran is a known DMK organ next only to Dinakaran and Sun Media. Therefore they have no other way except to project incumbency, minority votes, Dalit votes as decisive factors. Their choice is DMK. No surprise. It is expected.

This analysis on opinion polls for Tamil Nadu Parliamentary elections means many people are not yet decided. They are going to make a decision only on 24.04.2014. We also wish to conclude that there shall be a split verdict in Tamil Nadu reflecting  the mood of this great nation. Jai Hind! That shall bring a change. Jai Hind!We wish the change shall bring peace, prosperity and growth, the slogan raised by J.Jayalalithaa. Jai Hind! Wish you all a happy and enjoyable voting day. Jai Hind.


Kindly vote without fear and favour. As instructed by Bharathi, fear not at any trouble. In his own style we ask you

Fear not my soul. Fear not
Fear not when the politicians, police, Court , election commission and media turn against you
Fear not when the richest of the riches promise greedy treasure on you
Fear not when you have lost everything except your vote.

Fear not the clans campaigning for their caste.

Fear not when the merchants of gods seduce you.

You are neither in majority nor in minority.

You are the single. Assert yourself, fear not.

You neither belong to Kanyakumari nor to Kashmir.

You belong to the world of Humanity, Equality. Justice  and Liberty.

Fear not my dear son and daughter

Of  a Great Nation of the human heritage

She appears standing on a lotus with lot of golden hands

Still she is in the mud, quick sand and needs a support.

Save her by your single finger . Vote for Her.

Jai Hind.


Also read the latest opinion from the same author in


Election, Corruption, TASMAC, Basmati Rice, Chicken, Mutton, Bunks and the Banks

Election, Corruption, TASMAC, Basmati Rice, Chicken, Mutton, Bunks and the Banks

Chennai, Apr 22 (TruthDive): The Election Commission of India is doing appreciable and wonderful job in organizing Parliamentary election 2014. This is the only greatest process in the world which can be compared with no other democratic exercise. Every election in India can be called as unprecedented occasion.

ECI is exploring all ideas to invite the voters to polling booth. That is good. ECI tries to monitor and see whether the election code of conduct is exceeded by the political parties and the Governments. That is also good. But, our election commission cannot control the flow of illegal money due to lack of appropriate mechanism and man power.

There is a way to indirectly monitor and calculate the flow of money exceeding the limits. In Tamil Nadu, the Government itself is running the liquor shops through TASMAC. We suggest Election Commission to get information about the sale of liquor through TASMAC in the past six months. Compare it with the sales figures in the past year in the same period. Calculate the increase in the sale of liquor. The additional income for TASMAC in this season beyond the normal annual increase in sales should definitely show the illegal money spent for election. The Election Commission can get the TASMAC income details in the shops located in each constituency and prepare a report to publish it in the newspapers.

Refer the following link.

The Times of India has published the following report regarding the TASMAC income during the election campaigns of Narendra Modi and J.Jayalalithaa:

Liquor is a major part of big-ticket meetings addressed by top leaders—a necessary cog in the campaign machine. Figures obtained from the Tamil Nadu State Marketing Corporation (Tasmac) show that daily liquor sales shoot up by as much as 45% over the average in the districts where campaign meetings are held.

For instance, on February 8, the 270-odd Tasmac shops in Kancheepuram district registered an additional collection of 1.5 crore compared to the average revenue they bring in every day. On that day, Vandalur in the city suburbs hosted a massive political rally addressed by NDA’s prime minister candidate Narendra Modi.

His Trichy rally on December 26 may have contributed to the 46 lakh additional revenue to the exchequer from 226 liquor shops.

Jayalalithaa’s Nagapattinam rally is thought to have brought in around 17 lakh extra revenue from about 142 shops in the district.

Therefore the ECI can get details from all TASMAC shops in a particular constituency and match it with the total expenses by all the candidates in that constituency. What can we conclude if we find that the total increase in income of TASMAC is more than the election expenses of all the candidates?

Definitely the amount spent for TASMAC cannot be accounted. It should be categorized only under food expenses.

Another way to find the flow of illegal money is the quantity of Briyani consumed by the population in excess over the regular intake! There must be an increase in the sale of Chicken, Mutton and Basmati rice for preparation of Briyani, the food item which is widely distributed as side dish for liquor. If this can be measured for the entire state it should be an indication of excess expenses by the candidates for election campaign.

ECI can also get the additional sales in Diesel and Petrol from the oil companies in each constituency. Just verification of bills and accounts for fuel expenses submitted by the candidates can be only a routine formality. Declaration by the candidates need not be correct since they even hide their personal details such as marital status.

Well, another way. ECI can have access to the money transactions in all the banks in the period of election process. ECI should employ specialists in assessing money flow from the data obtained from the banks.(ECI should not consider employing either Manmohan Singh or P. Chidambaram)

Therefore it is possible to further explore the details of money spent unnecessarily in our election process. Definitely the unaccounted money spent in the election is either the flower of the old poisonous tree of corruption or it is a seed ( o.k. call it as investment) for future corruption.


Election strategy of Jayalalithaa

Election strategy of Jayalalithaa

Chennai, Mar 13(TruthDive): At last it appears everything goes according to the predicted plan of Jayalalithaa for the 2014 Parliament election. A multi-cornered political contest.

Several months back Jayalalithaa hinted about her intention of fielding AIADMK candidates in all the forty seats in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. But, Left parties failed to feel that pulse.

Through stage managing a drastic step of ordering the release of persons accused in Rajiv Gandhi assassination case. she aborted even the least possibility of DMK-Congress alliance.

To decimate the effect of PMK in the north Tamil Nadu, she gave maximum representation of 8 seats for Vanniyar community, the maximum number when counted community wise.

With Left parties, Jayalalithaa played the same game she played with Vaiko in the last assembly elections. They are now forced to stand alone and are still not able to criticize her all of a sudden.

Regarding the enhanced reservation for Muslim Community, she has initiated the process. By staying away from BJP, Jayalalithaa has got immunity from anti-minority virus.

Announcing the list of candidates for all the 40 seats, releasing the election manifesto and starting the campaign as the first party, it appears Jayalalithaa has planned everything in advance while her opponents are showing wait and watch attitude towards alliances.

At national level although she showed signs of joining a front organised by Left parties,she suddenly found comforts with Mamata Banerjee who is a sworn enemy of Left parties. Following this a federal front idea is now floating. With Anna Hazare supporting Mamata, this federal front can result in consolidation of non BJP -anti Congress force.

Jayalalithaa’s promise to establish, enforce and sustain Cooperative Federalism is seen as a realistic reflection of the frustrated State Governments over the step-motherly treatment adopted by various Governments at the centre in the past. Her statement that Centre and States would equally share the sovereign power should be with reference to the wrong foreign policies adopted by the Congress-led UPA. Her view that in such a federal set up, the State and Centre would not restrict each other and would act independently within their own sphere of jurisdiction will never be shared by a National party.

She has released election manifesto with a national outlook. Particularly a promise on increasing the income tax limits of individuals catches the imagination of middle class voters. At the regional level, she is projecting herself as the only leader eligible to become the Prime Minister of India. Fortunately for her it is true.

With the people of Tamil Nadu possessing the maturity of differentiating rulers in Delhi and Chennai, the incumbency factor can be nullified if voters feel that in this national scenario she can do it.

The infighting within DMK, the orphaned Congress party, the fragile alliance led by BJP and wavering DMDK, the AAP still in conception stage, all lead to a rosy picture for Jayalalithaa.

Even her opponent Karunanidhi once expressed that he would be happy if Jayalalithaa becomes Prime Minister. May be he is waiting for a vacuum in Chennai if she opts for Delhi. Now, Karunanidhi is also reiterating that he is not for either Modi or Rahul for the post of Prime Minister.

If it results in a situation that Jayalalithaa can become Prime Minister only if DMK supports her then that will end the animosity and ultimately good for the progress of Tamil Nadu. Moreover, she can take the Tamil Nadu model of progress to India which is better than Gujarat model in many respects.


Can Aam Aadmi Party bring a change?

Can Aam Aadmi Party bring a change?

When the last parliament elections were due, Truthdive published an article about the illiteracy of Aam Aadmi. A rereading of that piece makes an interesting experience. The article dealt about the failure of our political parties and explained about the futility of three political combinations available at that time.

Now, we can reexamine the situation with reference to Aam Admi Party and Arvind Kejriwal.

Particularly the citizens of New Delhi are singing the  folk song starting like this ( full song available in the above article)

Over the tip of a thorn
I dug three ponds.
Two got silted
The third was waterless.

It appears that the next parliamentary election shall get a fourth dimension with the arrival of Aam Aadmi Party. Otherwise, it will turn out to be the same triangular contest up to the 2019 general elections.

With unexpected development on the advent of Aam Aadmi Party, BJP should be having a second thought about Modi wave. Arvind Kejriwal has constructed a check dam to control Modi wave.

BJP  tried the old method of yatra in the form of a run to speed up their campaign. But AAP is to give a run for money to be spent by both BJP and Congress Party. Even media houses are depressed over the popularity of AAP since it will affect the prospects of BJP and Modi. Their dream of pitting inexperienced Rahul against Modi is cut halfway due to the wakening call by Arvind Kejriwal. Congress party leaders should be now preparing themselves to sit in opposition with less than 100 seats.

Both establishments branching from the same root shall run after celebrities in other fields. See how Bharat Ratna is awarded to Sachin Tendulkar, MP seat is offered to cricketer Ganguly. They expose their lack of ideas. This time it is to be seen who will be more unlucky.

Now, BJP and Congress join together to  pass Lokpal bill. For Arvind Kejriwal it is a jokeball bill but he has achieved the mountainous goal of dumping these parties in one basket. Why the women’s reservation bill is still put in the back burner? Why not we have one beautiful new Ajanta painting showing a hand holding a  Lotus? A rare unity against a common enemy Aam Aadmi!

Both Congress and BJP are considered two sides of the same coin. They are not anti-establishment. They are status quoists in many aspects of all our social, political and economic system. Both have inherited the legacy of Indian establishment of British period. Sardar Patel, the new-found godfather of Narendra Modi and Jawaharlal Nehru were Congressmen. The policies established in the present system were inserted by these two parties. They will never break their own establishment.

Nobel laureate Amartya Sen feels that AAP can challenge established institutions. What are those established institutions? The Parliament, Executive, Judiciary and the Press. Corruption and sex scandals have corroded all these institutions. These pillars are not Ashok Pillars. They are made of the same kind of poor unprocessed iron ore mined from the existing educational system evolved from British period and the social system evolved from Vedic period.

The communist parties could have marked a change. But, they chose to be a silver lining around the same coin. At the best when their values in our political system are evaluated individually, BJP and Congress are valued as ten rupee coin and Communists are poor 25 paise coins with which we cannot purchase anything. Then, what will be the value of AAP? It is the new five rupee coin of New Delhi and we are not sure whether they are gold coins.

Who voted for AAP in New Delhi? A part of votes were defected from the old parties. A part of it is from those who were waiting for a new combination. A part of it are new voters. The basic ideals of AAP are attractive but they should have two-thirds majority in the Parliament to amend everything which need the approval of the Constitution. They are just on a metropolitan city level.

Therefore, they will have to go a long way. Definitely AAP entering in to a ‘Power’ mode shall corrupt them. What happened to DMK, Assam Gana Parishad? They were propped up by student agitations but they were allowed to make mistakes deliberately. Later, they were drawn in to electoral politics of alliances. Ultimately they forgot their core vales on which their parties were found. We cannot resist the parallels in Periar Vs Anna Durai in Chennai and Anna Hazare Vs Arvind Kejriwal in New Delhi. Like Periyar being sympathetic to Kamaraj of Congress party, Anna should love Rahul Gandhi.

The development after the declaration of poll results in New Delhi assembly elections is new to Indian democracy. AAP declines to accept unconditional support from Congress or BJP. In the case of hung assembly, the usual practice was to split a party by purchasing MLAs. BJP and Congress have abandoned such a practice. They know that this time it will affect their image in the next parliament elections.

Usually, the outside supporters shall impose conditions to the ruling party in return for their support. This too did not happen now. Conversely, AAP is imposing conditions to other parties to accept their support. This concept is very good.

But, it is a bitter medicine for both BJP and Congress to swallow. That is adding insult to their injuries. They will get further irritated. That amounts to forming a National Government without any power share for opposition parties. This concept may be new to the whole world and many old guards could not understand it. That could be the commencement of Indian spring.

Aam Aadmi Party can bring about a change only when it remains in opposition until they get some absolute majority whether it is in municipal council or in Parliament. ================================================================================================================

Jayalalithaa set to become the Prime Minister

Jayalalithaa set to become the Prime Minister

The proposed convention on communalism to be held on October 30 is bringing regional parties and Left parties under one umbrella although they may not forge a pre-poll alliance. There are reports that AIADMK leader Jayalalithaa may not participate in this convention but shall depute a senior leader. Is it because of pre-engagements or a tactical absence?

In Tamil Nadu, AIADMK cadres are already campaigning for Jayalalithaa to become the Prime Minister. The announcement that AIADMK would contest all the forty seats has set a tone and impression that AIADMK is planning for a key role in deciding who will be the Prime Minister.

Jayalalithaa has good relationship with Left party leaders and many regional leaders. But, she is also a friend of Narendra Modi. She is known for soft Hindutva. There are indications that she will not align with BJP in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls for retaining a secular face and offering a bridge to the Left parties. She avoided meeting Narendra Modi during his visits to Tamil Nadu. These two faces of Jayalalithaa is going to help Jayalalithaa in a post-poll scenario.

According to surveys and opinion polls, BJP is set to become the single largest party in the next Lok Sabha elections. But, it cannot touch the majority mark. Who will support BJP in that case? The proposed anti-communal alliance will not accept Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister. But, BJP can support Jayalalithaa if she can lead a third front formed after the polls. She may have to compete with Mulayam Singh and Nitish Kumar. However, BJP cannot accept them. Therefore, Jayalalithaa shall be the only choice.

The Congress party should have sensed such a situation and recently there were unusual scenes of participation of Congress and AIADMK leaders in official functions. Therefore, in case the Left parties refuse to accept the support of BJP in a post-poll arrangement, Congress can come forward to support a Government under the leadership of Jayalalithaa to protect the secularism and oppose the communalism. Good fortunes await Jayalalithaa but it depends on the performance of AIADMK in the Lok Sabha polls.