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BJP wave in MP: pre-poll survey

New Delhi, Oct 29(): BJP will sweep Madhya Pradesh. The MP will see a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government for the third time.

According to a pre-poll survey, a BJP wave is sweeping the State and is all set to vote for the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government. The Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) conducted the poll for CNN-IBN and The Week. In the survey, 2,870 persons in 140 places were interviewed between October 13 and 20.

The poll says those surveyed in 35 constituencies, shows that the BJP has gained more support in the past five years with the majority of the electorate giving a full thumbs up to Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. The BJP tally would be 148-160 seats, Congress will win a meagre 52-62, and the Bahujan Samaj Party, 3-7.

10-18 seats will go to other independents and smaller parties in the 230-member Assembly. For the past five years, Madhya Pradesh has become a BJP bastion with the party widening its popularity over the Congress.

In the 2008 Assembly elections, the BJP share of the vote was 37.6 per cent but now it is 44 per cent of the electorate, an increase of 6 percentage points. While the Congress whose vote share was 32.4 per cent in 2008 increases to 33% now, increase of 11 percentage points for BJP shows that the BJP is miles ahead.

The BJP voters are not too sure about their choice but Congress voters are clear about their preference. The pro-incumbency factor is less than it was in 2008, making Chouhan 53 per cent of the voters’ choice while it was 56 % in 2008 while only 20 percent say that he should not get another chance (24 percent in 2008).

The pro-incumbency wave is 72% this month and in 2008 it was 76%. Chouhan gets support of 78 per cent of those surveyed. Good roads,good governance and development, and improved power supply are reasons for the vote in favour of Chouhan. He has a 24 percentage point lead over younger rival Jyotiraditya Scindia (Congress). Even the first-time voters plump for Chouhan.

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi has replaced Chouhan as the choice for the prime minister’s post, while in July it was Chouhan.




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